All information indicates that IS will try to turn the Fallujah battle into a long one, whose general course would be different than the Tikrit battle. It would be closer to the battle of Beiji in the Salahuddin province, which the Iraqi forces have been trying to regain since Oct. 19, without actually resolving the battle.
IS chose Beiji to wage a war of attrition against the Iraqi forces because it can continuously infiltrate the areas controlled by the Iraqi forces whether within the city of Beiji or in the Beiji refinery, which has been witnessing unsettled conflicts between the Iraqi forces and IS for months now.
The geographic composition of Beiji, which is an open area mainly composed of a desert, allows IS to infiltrate other areas, and it is difficult to close Beiji’s borders militarily, in addition to the presence of its residents who refuse to get involved in the battle.
Despite the official Iraqi announcement of the Iraqi forces besieging the city of Fallujah from its four sides, the siege does not seem complete. Witnesses from Fallujah told Al-Monitor that IS can still declare war and infiltrate the city from its northern and southern sides.
According to witnesses, the presence of residents in Fallujah represents the perfect cover for IS fighters, who use them as human shields to secretly move through the city.
The same witnesses pointed to two sensitive regions for the Iraqi forces. This first is north of Fallujah (between the cities of al-Sajar and Saqlawiyah), where dozens of randomly spread residential neighborhoods overlap. The second is south and southwest of Fallujah, where agricultural areas extend to the Euphrates River, and the desert of Anbar, which was and remains IS’ biggest hideout.
The magnitude, duration and timing of the upcoming battle in Anbar remain unknown. However, the battle of Fallujah is surely going to be massive, and it will be the first step to regain the city of Ramadi and the rest of Anbar, as long as the Iraqi forces do not fall victim to the war of attrition within the city’s mined neighborhoods.
Comments are closed.