Israel appears to be taking the threats made by Iran and its Shiite armed groups quite seriously. In response, it carried out airstrikes Jan. 8 against Hezbollah positions in the Golan Heights, killing a number of Lebanese and Iranians there.
Michael Knights, a prominent military and security expert and a fellow at the Washington Institute, told Al-Monitor, “Israel has proven its military capability to confront the Lebanese Hezbollah in the Golan Heights." He added, "Israel is expected to confront other Shiite forces there just as strongly, which will lead to an armed struggle between Iraqi citizens and Israel for the first time since 1991.”
Raising the banner of resistance, especially in terms of eliminating Israel, provides Iran’s Shiite militias with a "legitimate" cover, giving them wider freedom of movement in the region.
The goal of liberating the Golan Heights "provides justification for the expansion of these militias outside of the Baghdad government’s control, in light of its great propaganda potential," Knights said. "This paves the way [for Shiite militias] to achieve their mission and adopt a foreign policy, independently of the Iraqi state."
These militias are aware of the movement restrictions inside Iraq in the post-IS phase. They are further restricted by the PMU law, and authorities in Najaf have repeatedly called for weapons to be confined to state forces. However, this does not mean the factions strictly abide by the Iraqi state’s orders. In the event of any existential threat against Iran, these factions will follow Iran’s lead and attack the United States and its allies in Iraq to keep anything from harming Iran, as they did during the US occupation of Iraq.
The wars raging in Syria and Yemen provide a suitable environment for these forces to expand and play an important role in preserving the Islamic regime in Iran in the future. Based on their ideology, these forces are ready to play any military role the Iranian leadership assigns to them. This may include moving toward Yemen, confronting Saudi forces or Israelis in the Golan Heights, or even attacking Turkish forces in Iraq.
Editor's note: This article has been updated since its initial publication.
(Picture credit: Tasnim, under Creative Commons licence)
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