For 2010 as a whole, we assume an average OPEC basket price of US$77.00/bbl (+26.5% y-o-y). The 2010 US WTI price is now put at US$79.16/bbl. We assume an OPEC basket price ofUS$80.00/bbl in 2011, with WTI averaging US$82.25, Brent at US$82.46/bbl, Urals delivering aroundUS$81.21 and the Dubai average being US$80.74/bbl. Our central assumption for 2012 is an OPEC priceaveraging US$85.00/bbl, delivering WTI at approximately US$87.40 and Brent at US$87.60/bbl. From2013 onwards, we are using an average OPEC price of US$90.00/bbl.
For the whole of 2010, the assumption for the global gasoline price is an average of US$87.49/bbl, representing a y-o-y rise of 24.7%. The global gasoil forecast is for an average price of US$88.00/bbl,probably peaking in December 2010 at more than US$95/bbl. The full-year outturn represents a 27.6%increase from the 2009 level. For 2010, the annual jet price level is forecast to be US$89.500/bbl. Thiscompares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put at US$77.65/bbl,up almost 31% from the previous year's level.
We are assuming that Iraqi real GDP will rise 3.4% in 2010, and we are forecasting average annual growth of 5.7% in 2010-2015. We expect estimated oil demand of 700,000b/d in 2010 to rise to893,000b/d in 2015, depending on investment in infrastructure and the development of domesticproduction. International oil companies (IOCs) have signed production sharing agreements (PSAs) withthe state, which should help accelerate the growth in oil output. Based on the efforts of national oilindustry bodies, we are forecasting average oil production of 2.51mn b/d in 2010. September 2010production was 2.52mn b/d, with 2.02mn b/d of exports. Further field reactivation work and the initialIOC efforts point to output of an estimated 3.15mn b/d in 2015. The government has much moreambitious targets, aiming for 0.5mn b/d annual output expansion and a long-term goal of 6.0mn b/d.However, there are major risks involving attacks on oil installations, Iraq's OPEC entitlement and thesuccess of new energy policy in stimulating IOC investment.
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