Between 2010 and 2020, we are forecasting an increase in Iraqi oil production of 65.7%, with crude volumes rising steadily to 4.15mn b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Oil consumption between2010 and 2020 is set to increase by 62.9%, with growth slowing to an assumed 5.0% per annum towardsthe end of the period and the country using 1.14mn b/d by 2020. Gas production is expected to climb to42bcm by the end of the period. With 2010-2020 demand growth of 281%, export potential should rise to23bcm by 2020. Details of the our 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
Iraq ranks fourth, just ahead of Iran and Bahrain, in our composite Business Environment ratings (BERs) table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. It now occupies a respectable third placein our updated upstream Business Environment ratings, but lags Qatar and the UAE by five points andthree points respectively. The country's score benefits from exceptional oil and gas output growthpotential, a substantial hydrocarbons reserves base and the region's highest reserves-to-production ratio(RPR). Current government control of the upstream industry and a high level of country-specific riskprevent Iraq from achieving a better overall score. Iraq is back at the bottom of the league table in our downstream Business Environment ratings, with a few high scores but further near-term progress up therankings unlikely. It is ranked just behind Kuwait and Oman, in spite of a reasonable showing in terms ofoil demand, oil and gas demand growth and likely refining capacity expansion.
The full report runs to 99 pages, and is available at a price of £590 directly from Business Monitor International.
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