The western Desert and Jezira Area would probably add 20TCF gas (2 BSCFD) within 5-7 years, from Blocks 1 to 5 and possibly part of Block-6 in addition to some condensate. Other blocks are expected to add more reserves, probably in the region of about 500 million B. The current estimate of P1 in Kurdistan of 1.45 BB is likely to increase by 50%-70% in the next few years following extra delineation of the new discoveries and further well and reservoir testing.
However if the increase of some 30 BB reported by MoO is genuine then the overall P1 reserves are over 175 BB. The author in a study for CGES entitled ‘Hydrocarbon Exploration and field development in Iraq’ issued early 2009 estimated the reserves as 130-150 BB in seven year time.
Production Plateau Targets
Contracted oil PPTs of Rounds 1 and 2 as compared to those revised by the author are shown in Annex-2. The planned targets are much higher than the revised in the first three fields.
The fields are multi reservoirs some of which are not developed and little is known about their behavior so it is too early to assign high PPTs for them.
The independent study by the author estimates that the Peak Potential PPT (million B/D) of Iraq is as shown below. However it is not feasible to assume possibility of developing all the reservoirs of Iraq to arrive to this figure. The estimate of potential should be looked at as a positive sign to quote high but practically achievable targets.The overall reserve potential can aid in offsetting the production decline hence prolonging the plateau period.
A modest increase in the reservoir depletion rate, compared to what has been practiced in Iraq pre-2003, was assumed comprising two options:
Option 1: 5%-7% depletion rate hopefully maintaining a plateau for 5-7 years
Option 2: 4%-5% depletion rate hopefully maintaining a plateau for 7-10 years
Plateau level and period are subject to observation of reservoir performance in the first two years