Central Iraq (Baghdad and Anbar)
Baghdad saw incidents return to above-average levels this week, continuing the gradual upward trend set since the beginning of May 2012. The majority of incidents inside Baghdad’s city limits were targeted SAF attacks and small explosive devices, of which fourteen out of the seventeen reported, were targeted against Iraqi government or ISF locations. Outside the city, there were two SAF attacks on ISF in Baghdad’s southern belt but no reported incidents to the north of the city. On 22 July, a triple VBIED targeted a market in Mahmudiyah 20km to the south of Baghdad and a triple IED attack took place in a market in Mada’in to the southeast of the city. Both attacks occurred before 0800 hours at the time of Sahur (the morning meal before the day of fasting during Ramadan). Both of these attacks are assessed to have likely been precursors to the 23 July attacks, which had a particular focus on Baghdad’s outer districts.
Levels of violence increased this week across Anbar province with a total of twelve incidents, bringing the weekly average for 2012 to ten. Incidents were broadly focussed in Fallujah, with four SAF attacks and an IED. There was also a single IED reported in Hit, and a single IED in each of Khalidiyah and Saqlawiyah. Ramadi remained subdued for most of the week, with only a single SAF attack on the home of an ISF member. However, the 22 July saw a VBIED and a suicide car-bomb (SVBIED) in Ramadi, both targeting ISF. As with the attacks to the south of Baghdad on the same day, these attacks in Ramadi may have been a precursor to the nationwide attacks the following day. As such the relatively subdued week for Anbar, in terms of high-profile incidents, appears simply to have been a temporary lull and the upward trend in attacks may continue in the coming weeks.
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