Northern Iraq (North and North Central Regions – including the KRG)
The Northern Region reported 22 incidents during the reporting period, a significant decrease on last weeks figure and below the 2012 weekly average of 24. While this is an improvement in the security metrics, it should be remembered that Ninawa Province, where most of the violent incidents occur, has featured highly divergent reporting over the course of the summer and as such weekly variations do not necessarily reflect underlying security dynamics. The majority of incidents this week involved explosive devices, with eight incidents occurring in the Mosul area and five occurring elsewhere in the province. Of these six targeted ISF and three other government employees. There were also numerous shooting incidents, with four occurring outside of Mosul, and five in the city itself. Of the shooting incidents, six targeted ISF, notably two of these took place near the Syrian border in Baaj District. Attacks on high profile government employees and community figures continued. On 2 October, a judge inMosul’sInvestigation Court survived an assassination, the following day the convoy of Brigadier in the Ninawa Operations Command, was the target of small arms fire (SAF).
The North Central Region reported 33 incidents this week, a considerable reduction on last week’s figure and just below the 2012 weekly average of 35. This reduction reflects reduced reporting in almost all areas of the region, including the usually active areas of the Diyala River Valley, Kirkuk and northern Salah al-Din. However, areas of the Tigris River Valley in the far south of Salah al-Din were relatively active, with almost all incidents consisting of shooting or stand-off attacks on ISF. There was also a cluster of incidents in Tuz District in the far east of Salah al-Din. This uneven distribution of activity is usual and reflects the highly unstable and fluid nature of the insurgency in the North Central Region. There were no reported coordinated or ‘spectacular’ attacks. This, along with overall reduced figures, possibly reflects a period of replenishment by insurgent groups following the high levels of violence seen across the region in the last four weeks, and over the summer period more generally. Following the Tikrit Tasfirat prison break on 27 September ISF aggressively stepped up their security posture, which included multiple arrests of fugitives across the region.
Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) – No significant incident were reported during the period in the three provinces that comprise the KRG (Dahuk,Erbil and Sulaymaniyah).