At the wider provincial level Al-Anbar continues to have a relatively low level of incidences with the majority being concentrated in Fallujah, Ramadi and surrounding urban center’s.
The focus of reported incidents in the province remains very ISF and GOI oriented, especially toward military and GOI infrastructure via the means on IDF attacks. This has seen corresponding low level of activity against civilians.
It can be expected that the outlook will remain at moderately low levels but the potential for significant unrest in the major urban areas remains and is very dependent on the course of action Baghdad chooses to take to resolve the current political stalemate.
Of all the Iraqi provinces Baghdad has seen the greatest level on increased violence midweek with a significant number of attacks taking place against a mixture of ISF, GOI and sectarian targets across the province and along historical sectarian fault lines within the city. This week alone has seen a total of 12 IED attacks of varying description, and numerous SAF attacks, predominantly against ISF and a limited number GOI targets. Whilst it remains difficult to identify any trend there is a clear building pattern of high impact events, which could be indicative of a potential spectacular taking place within the coming weeks. This would certainly tie in with the reported increase in sectarian tension within the political domain, both nationally and locally in Baghdad, and the elevated threat level issued by PSCs suggesting that Sunni Insurgent Groups and Al Qaeda in Iraq will seek to exploit these tensions over the short to medium term.