On another more positive note the week saw a number of high-level foreign delegations visiting. A British delegation, which included British Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs, Alistair Burt, and a senior Dutch delegation from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs both visited Baghdad and Kurdistan in attempts to enhance and cement key relationships in areas where both countries have vested economic interest in the Oil and Gas sectors. What is clear is that regardless of the GOI position businesses operating in Iraq in the current climate need to consider the wider aspects of their relationships at both the local, provincial and government level. Despite the recent efforts of Baghdad to exert more control over the provinces international business and political players need also to invest in significant ‘relationship currency’ at every level of the political and business spectrum.
NORTHERN REGION
Activity over the week dropped off slightly in the Northern regions with a familiar week on week off spike in activity. Of note was a significant increase in the tempo of Turkish military activity on the northern border, which resulted in a number of bombing raids, the most recent being on 14 February by the Turkish Air force resulting in the destruction of a significant irrigation project purportedly being used by the PKK.
The overwhelming majority of incidences continue to occur in the vicinity of major population areas such as Mosul, Kirkuk, and the urban centres straddling the Tigris River Valley. Of note was the ISF raid on a significant IED factory in Nineveh province that has further confirmed reports that organised militant groups continue to combine criminal activity in order to fund on-going insurgent operations. Attacks were predominantly against civilian targets, especially those high level society figures with strong links to the organisation Concerned Citizens of Iraq, GOI and the ISF. The most recent attacks occurred on 16 February that resulted in the killing of a senior Iraqi Judge in Kirkuk and a senior intelligence officer in Mosul, and the targeting of an Iraqi Army communication centre with a Suicide VBIED on the 11 February.
Incidents in Salah Ad Din and Diyala were down but those incidents that have happened continue to exploit the mostly civilian sectarian divide in the North and East of the country. In line with Baghdad’s attempt to wrest more control (witnessed in the recent raid on the Governors office in Diyala and the Iraqi Army confirming it had boosted its operational tempo in the province) the ISF went on to detain a prominent tribal leader in Diyala who was said to be central to the coordination of anti-government demonstrations.
The continued hard handlings of the demonstration movement will likely lead to retaliatory attacks against ISF and ensure that Sunni Insurgent Groups remain well supported across the North, East and Western provinces.
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