WEST
At the wider provincial level Al-Anbar continues to have a low level of incidences.
The increased tempo by the Iraqi Army across Al-Anbar appears to have had a strangling effect on the protest movement. There remains and uneasy calm across the province whilst multiple players undoubtedly trade time with space. Militant cells are under close scrutiny from the protest movement and will wish to avoid direct confrontation in order to preserve their strength for operations against the GOI. They will however likely react to heavy handedness by Baghdad toward the protest movement as part of a wider attempt to gain legitimacy in the eyes of the public and protest movement.
CENTRAL
This week Baghdad was the focal point for violence with a predicted rise in attacks. Sunday 17 February saw an estimated 13 bombings, which were claimed by Al-Qaeda in Iraq, and targeted mainly Shia areas in the city. Explosions rocked the neighborhoods of Ourfally, Kiyara and Falah Street in the eastern suburb of Sadr City as well as the suburbs of al-Amin, al-Husseiniya, Habibiya and Kamaliya. There was no great variation in the means employed with a mix of Suicide IED / VBIED being utilised.
Early in the week ISF remained the primary targets however the events of Sunday 17 February suggest a more blanket and indiscriminate approach to the attacks with little discrepancy over who was targeted. The concerns about the Sunni community mobilising in support of the protest movement resulted in an increased security presence across the city that will have undoubtedly riled insurgent groups to attack what are numerous opportunity targets. This continued security presence and the heavy handed response with it will further marginalise the various sectarian communities and one can expect the increased levels of violence to continue in the short term.
SOUTHERN
No change significant change. Incidents associated with insurgent activity and sectarian tensions persist at an all time low in the Southern regions with what few incidents taking place being mainly inter Shia or tribal rivalry and organised criminal activity. There was however two largely peaceful protests outside the offices of the Southern Oil Company centred on poor pay and living conditions.
Whilst these levels remain low is should be noted that there remains a specific and potent kidnap and extortion threat toward foreigners and foreign businesses operating in the Basrah, Dhi Qar and Maysan areas. Furthermore, the possibility of a sectarian motivated high impact attack is omnipresent, especially in the sensitive and religiously important areas of Babil, Karbala, Najaf, Wasit and Basrah. With the looming Iranian national elections it will be interesting to see what influence this may have upon inter Shia rivalries that predominate across the southern provinces and especially in Basrah.
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