Weekly Security Update 20 - 26 March 2013

NORTH

Levels of violence in the northern regions remained unremarkable this week with a familiar blend of IED and SAF attacks taking place against mainly ISF targets.  Districts west of the Tigris River Valley remained the focus of the majority of attacks with the overwhelming number of IED attacks being reported from these locales, which have thankfully had a limited effect in terms of casualties.

Kirkuk was for the most part quiet this week with the main insurgent event being the two VBIED attacks in the provincial capital, which once again had a limited effect.  Despite this the provincial capital and surrounding areas continue to be the focal point for IED attacks against ISF grand motorcades that clearly attract unwanted attention.  There have been at least 15 separate attacks of this nature since Jan 2013, the vast majority of which have occurred after ISF have ‘cleared’ routes, which suggests that militants have the capacity to deploy quickly against opportune targets.

Salah al-Din experienced heightened levels of violence this week with ISF operations coming under significant pressure from determined Sunni insurgents.  Reports of multiple IED strikes and SAF battles have dominated the local media.  This ties in with local reporting which has suggested that local insurgents have been reinforced by insurgents from the Capital, and also from the al-Jazirah desert to the West, which ties in with the ISF picture of Sunni groups moving fluidly to support operations countrywide as required.

Linked to this Diyala saw a drop in insurgent attacks this week with the assessment being that a significant number of insurgents had migrated towards Salah al-Din and Baghdad.  Notwithstanding, the character of some of the incidents reported in Diyala was further evidence of a rejuvenated militant campaign; chief among these were a suicide bombing in Balad Ruz and an unusual RPG attack in Muqdadiyah. As local cells consolidate following the major effort in the national capital this week, incident numbers will now increase and be focused in Baqubah and the towns northeast along the Diyala River Valley.

WEST

This week Al-Anbar was markedly more violent, with a number of attacks directed against the ISF.  Sunni insurgents – despite being marginalized by the protest movement – continue to see the futility of attacking their own kith and kin and as such the focus of attacks is predominantly against ISF and GoI targets.  This situation will continue especially given the tensions arising out of the Baghdad decision to postpone provincial elections thus further sidelining Sunni minority.  Al-Anbar will over the coming weeks continue to foment as a result of the political stalemate but also due to insurgents migrating back from Baghdad after the spectacular attacks of last week.  Whilst this is certainly happening groups continue to move to and from the border areas to resupply which will undoubtedly attract the attention of the ISF and IA, creating a finely balanced dynamic as each group circles wary of igniting the Al-Anbar tinderbox.

CENTRAL

Baghdad and surrounding provinces experienced a relative calm on the back a frantic period of spectacular attacks last week.  Whilst we have not seen the same levels of IED attacks a familiar blend of stealth assassinations and SAF attacks have continued throughout the week as both Shia and Sunni groups continue to wage a campaign of intimidation and revenge.  This calm is also certainly due to insurgent groups migrating back to other areas to re-supply and plan future operations.  The attacks of 14 and 19/20 March will have used significant supplies and constituted a great degree of sophisticated planning and coordination.  The 14 March attack against the Ministry of Justice has been claimed by ISI as part of its wider ‘Breaking Down the Walls’ campaign, which has its primary aim of liberating its affiliates from Iraqi jails, which follows a similar trend of attacking other facilities associated with the justice system in north central and central Iraq.  Despite the success of the attack it resulted in a number of ISI operatives being killed and as such this, coupled with the migration north and west, may well diminish the ISI and Sunni insurgent capability for the weeks to come.

SOUTHERN

In line with the emboldened stance by Sunni insurgent groups the South has for the first time in recent months seen an increase in Sunni insurgent activity and threat, which thankfully has failed to impact this week.  Basra and surrounding areas continue to experience what is often referred to as ‘local issues’ as Shia groups posture and fight over loyalties and districts.  Much of the violence this week has been criminal and revenge oriented as tribes and families seek to gain control of lucrative smuggling routes and operations, as well as to avenge the deaths of slain members.