PUK Falls to Third Place In Iraqi Kurdistan Elections

The proposed scenarios for the alliances that would form the Kurdistan government had surfaced before the election results were announced. The KDP has declared its wish to form an alliance with the PUK and the Islamic Union to form a government, while keeping the Movement for Change in the opposition, according to KDP General Secretary Fadel Mirani.

But such a scenario — which maintains the strategic alliance between the KDP and the PUK — will be done according to different conditions than before, when the premiership was equally divided between the two parties, with each party controlling that post for two years. Moreover, the election results may result in the PUK losing the presidency of the Republic of Iraq in favor of Barzani, who would then control the keys to politics in both Erbil and Baghdad.

However, the new strong horse on the Kurdish political scene, head of the Movement for Change Nawshirwan Mustafa, is closely watching what will happen to his former party, the PUK, in the absence of its historic leader Talabani.

Sources in Sulaimaniyah — the stronghold of the two parties — told Al-Monitor about side discussions going on, to unite the PUK and the Movement for Change because that may give them enough parliamentary seats to form a government with Islamist parties.

Despite the difficulty of this option, it is being considered even within the PUK, which cannot compensate for its electoral loss and enter into an alliance that ensures its interests in Baghdad and Erbil without pressuring Barzani by implicitly threatening an alliance with Mustafa, who was a founding member of the KDP but had poor relations with Barzani.

The PUK’s room for maneuver will not be significant as long as its leader is absent. There are several power centers in the PUK squabbling for the party’s top position. Barzani has other choices in case he is pressed too much. He could ally with the Movement for Change and keep the PUK in the opposition.

The intra-Kurdish balances saw a lot of unrest in the 1990s, when there was a civil war between Talabani and Barzani. That war resulted in two different and independent administrations in Erbil and Sulaimaniyah.