In December, six members of the KDPI died in an explosion in a base in the KRG town of Koya. The party leadership accused Iran of carrying out the attack. Nechirvan Barzani did not rule out the possibility that Iran was behind it.
Soleimani may also use Iran's considerable diplomatic, economic and security apparatuses to prevent the region becoming independent. Kurdish studies specialist Kamran Matin of the University of Sussex told Al-Monitor that if there really was a referendum and Kurdish leaders took steps toward independence, it is possible that Soleimani would provoke the central government in Baghdad and Shiite militias against the KRG.
"Iran could also take the presence of opposition Kurdish-Iranian forces in the region as a pretext for military intervention there," he said. "On the other hand, Iran could enter into an alliance with Turkey to put pressure on the region. Finally, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard could use extremist Sunni Kurdish groups against the regional government, as it did early 2000s, when it it supported the Ansar al-Islam group in order to win political concessions from the region."
But Hiltermann said it is unlikely Iran would take such measures in the near future. "I don't think Iran is very worried, given that it is only a referendum and it will not receive much international support at this stage," he said.
Despite Iran's leverage in the region and Soleimani's moves to prevent the region from gaining more independence, the region has won major privileges in recent years thanks to support from the United States.
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