Apart from Baghdad’s discontent and the opposition of the local Arabs and Turkmens to the planned referendum, there are regional and international challenges. Regionally, the influence of neighboring powers such as Turkey and Iran can affect the trend of the referendum. Iran can influence the Kurdistan Region not only because it is bordering the region, but also through its allies from the central government and the Popular Mobilization Units (PMU). The PMU contains different groups, but the most powerful factions are those that maintain strong links with Tehran.
In April 2016, the PMU clashed with the peshmerga in Tuz Khormato. If the PMU and local Sunni fighters agree only on one thing, it is against the presence of the peshmerga in the disputed territories. Moreover, in a move that coincided with preparing for the referendum, Iran cut water flow from the Little Zab River to Kurdistan. Iranian officials have recently told a high-ranking Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) delegation, “If you hold a referendum, do not expect anything good from us.”
More recently, the Iranian defense minister has threatened that the separatist movements in Iraq will not be tolerated. In short, Iran is unequivocally against the Kurdish referendum and will try to prevent it from taking place.
Turkey has also been an influential actor that has presented itself as a guardian of the Turkmen community in Kirkuk and other disputed territories. Turkish influence comes from the country’s strategic position for the Kurdish oil and gas and as a kin-state for the Turkmens in Iraq. Like Iran, Turkey did not mince words when it came to the referendum issue.
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