But long-time Iraq watchers know that intractable problems behind that fight – around subjects like oil revenues, citizenship, military funding and borders - have remained unresolved for literally years, despite sideways steps, deals signed and various promises made and broken by both sides. It hardly seems likely that a populist referendum on Kurdish independence is going to solve any of those issues either. It’s like using a giant crayon to try to replicate a delicately shaded Monet.
If Kurdish independence comes, or even if Kurdish confederation is possible, it will evolve, and only after a lengthy process.
Analyst Michael Knights wrote this for the BBC: “Many senior Iraqi politicians have confided to me in private that they believe [Iraqi Kurdistan] is slowly and irreversibly becoming an independent state. But no Iraqi leader can say this publicly, not least when local and national elections loom ... What this all means is that the day after the referendum may look very much like the day before,” he concludes.
All of which gives rise to a question that the Iraqi media should have been asking themselves: Who has the most to gain from this popular, and populist, referendum, from this communal outpouring of emotion? Will it be the Kurdish people? The answer requires careful consideration and scrutiny of the kind that, due to the over-heated environment in Iraq over the referendum, may simply not be possible.
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