The negative effect on the KRG pipelines comes into stark view when considering that the planned capacity of Turkish Stream — 31.5 billion cubic meters — far surpasses Turkey’s estimated 15.75 billion cubic meters in consumption each year. This means that some 16 billion cubic meters could continue to the Greek-Turkish border and be exported onward into Europe.
However, both the Turkish Stream and Akkuyu nuclear plant projects have to overcome several technical setbacks before turning into real threats, according to the IEA’s 2016 energy outlook. The Turkish Stream pipeline would first need to secure a large gas demand in European markets (beyond Turkey and Greece), and would need substantial transmission capacity to transport the gas through Turkey and Eastern Europe to access key EU gas markets.
None of these conditions have been satisfied to date, according to the IEA. Concerns about Akkuyu hinge on regulation, such as new laws required to urgently proceed toward the full administrative independence of Turkey’s Nuclear Regulatory Authority, having the human resources to assess, monitor and evaluate the projects and having collaboration with international organizations such as safety authorities and/or technical support organizations.
In the meantime, it is worth noting that while both Putin and Erdogan stressed these projects in their Sept. 28 statement, neither Turkey nor Russia has actually denied or rejected their commitments with the KRG for building a gas pipeline there as well. In that sense, the message seems clear — Turkey and Russia remain available to help the KRG export its gas resources. However, they are also moving ahead with projects that would greatly limit the ability of an independent KRG to leverage its gas resources.
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