Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi might decide against this option if he takes into account that, in the post-Islamic State period, the Arab-Kurdish conflict over Kirkuk and other disputed territories could be the biggest potential threat to stability in Iraq. In addition, such a move could be both ineffective and dangerous, for it has a great potential for escalating into ethnic violence.
The second option is to hold provincial elections in a few months, which would lead to a new council and a new government. Kirkuk province is the only province that has had only one election since 2005; the Kirkuk provincial council is now the longest-serving such council in Iraq. In 2005, 41 members were elected in a public election for the council: The Kurdish Brotherhood List has 26 members, while there are nine Turkmens and six Arabs.
Other provinces (apart from the provinces forming the Kurdistan Region) held elections in 2005, 2009 and 2013. Conducting only one election within 12 years in Kirkuk province is a clear indication of the depth of disputes among the three main ethnic groups regarding Kirkuk's governance.
The current situation in Kirkuk is a good opportunity for holding a new provincial council within a few months. A member of the Kurdish provincial council told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity that “the provincial council is a tired council, let a new council come with new members.” Holding a provincial election, however, needs the consent of the main three groups of Kirkuk.
Attempts to hold provincial elections in 2009 and 2013 failed partly because, in the view of the Arabs and Turkmens, the Kurds would win any election thanks to the process of Kurdification since 2003. The Kurds deny this allegation of Kurdification. But if Baghdad were to attempt to hold a provincial election to form a new council and then a new governor, it would need to reach an agreement between the three main groups in Kirkuk, which is unlikely to happen.
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