By Tom Cleveland, market analyst for Forex Traders, exclusively for Iraq Business News. Forextraders.com is an online resource for the foreign exchange market.
“Buy on the rumor, sell on the news” is a time-honored investment phrase that is oftentimes more confusing than the wisdom it attempts to impart. The meaning relates primarily to company securities that appreciate in expectation of a big news announcement. Early speculation drives ups the price, such that when the real announcement is made, most investors sell on the news to take their profits, often driving the price down, rather than up. “Pump and Dump” stock frauds also follow a similar scenario, but in this case, criminals benefit and investors lose.
A similar situation has been building for years, some say as many as eight years, surrounding the potential “revaluation” of the Iraqi Dinar. As the rumor would have it, the Iraqi economy has stabilized, and the potential for enormous foreign currency reserves from increased oil exports will drive the value of the Dinar to unconscious levels versus the U.S Dollar. The government authorities will be forced to revalue the currency from 1,175 to 3 per Dollar, resulting in an outrageous windfall for anyone owning stockpiles of the currency. Does something here sound a little too good to be true?
In actuality, the Iraqi Dinar, or “IQD”, is a “controlled” currency. The central bank of Iraq determines the exchange rate and must support that rate by maintaining adequate foreign currency reserves to handle capital flows across its borders. The IMF permits countries with a transitional economy to implement currency controls in order to stabilize their economy during its redevelopment phase. Presently, international banks will not accept the Dinar, and it is not traded on any forex exchange. Actual purchases can be made through currency dealers that have been authorized to buy and sell banknotes that are already in circulation.
Not speaking of the actual process of exchanging dollars for cents! Solely mentioning the possible adversity & opposition... But I personally anticipate a synoymous event to kuwait... The IQD has my vote!
Dante... no offense, but I don't think you have a clue what happened in Kuwait.
Kuwait was invaded by Saddam. Saddam went into the central bank of Kuwait and stole billions of unissued dinars. All the banks shut their doors. The Central Bank, nor any private bank issued one single Kuwaiti dinar at a discounted rate. Not one. The exchange rate never changed. Some people on the street panicked and sold their dinar for a discounted rate. That war lasted 7 months, banks reopened, and one month later Kuwait issued a new currency. They checked the serial number of every dinar exchanged for new currency and didn't honor any of the bills stolen by Saddam. So they had about 400 million dinar in circulation before the war and 8 months later issued a new currency and still had the same about 400 million. Same exchange rate. And yes, that's right... they only had about 400 MILLION dinar in circulation at the time.
How any of that compares to Iraq, who had a decent rate 30some years ago, when they had 20 billion dinars, and now have 30 TRILLION dinars... is beyond me.
Whoa whoa whoa stew... Your absolutely correct! I do not know the details of kuwait's economic tribulation or recovery.. I was merely commenting on the imminent spontaneous change in value of the IQD similar to that of their neighbors. Understand?
No I don't understand.
Did you not read all of my post? There was no spontaneous change in value of the Kuwaiti dinar.
The Kuwait Central Bank, nor any Kuwaiti bank, never issued one single dinar at a rate less than the official $3 and change rate.
Kuwait NEVER changed it's exchange rate. A small number of people panicked and sold their cash they had in their pocket or maybe stashed at home. They didn't take money out of the bank and sell it because all banks were closed through the whole thing.
Iraq's Central Bank has issued 30 trillion dinar at a rate of .00085 or worse.
In other words... there is absolutly no comparison to Kuwait.
So how much hard currency does the Central banking system of Iraq currently hold,if any? I understand that the government is looking at buying up to 32 F-16 fighters at up to 8B$. No small change that. How much will they have in hard currency after that purchase? Are they exchanging petro dollars into what? Gold? Euro's? How rapidly are their petro revenues increasing at $100bbl? What happened to all the millions (Billions?) we shipped in there? Did they bury it behind a Mosque`? I'd be happy w/ .25 on the dinar.
Well we are the federal reserve currency of the world so therefore every nation & country must have us dollars to trade or buy materials & products from other countries.. The 700 million we sent them in March was supposed to be apart of their reforming & growing process in their stand by program also in assisting them to pay their debts.. The large amount of liguidity they have I assume is to be able to do business in the international community so I beleive it is necessary for them to hold large amounts in stock piles of their own currency to be able to furnish a relative amount of money to the dollar ($1=1170 IDQ) to afford typical transactions...
Personally, I sold all the Dinar I had as I believe the report written above. I bought most of my Dinar for about 800-900 per million and sold it for 1000-1200 per million, so I made a small profit but was not going to wait for " my ship" to come in and leave a bunch of wall paper for my kids to deal with. I believe the Dinar will gain in value over time as the Iraq economy grows and stabilizes but I am happy with my decision and work for a living to earn an inheritance my kids can count on! No offense to anyone seeking to make money off an investment, it was a personal decision. Good luck to all who are waiting in the rears. I really hope the investment works out for you all.
Yes exactly as I said prior, that's tthe correspondence that I have shamsol, & subsequent to the proposal to parliament then the vote roughly by the year's end... I also anticipate 2012 ish considering the re-evaluation of Iraq's overall growth & progress that was scheduled for Feb & given a 5 month extention til July 2012... Ultimately bringing into law by the year's conclusion..
Yes yep exactly as I said prior, that's tthe correspondence that I have shamsol, & subsequent to the proposal to parliament then the vote roughly by the year's end... I also anticipate 2012 ish considering the re-evaluation of Iraq's overall growth & progress that was scheduled for Feb & given a 5 month extention til July 2012... Ultimately bringing into law by the year's conclusion.. W
Have to think about this one. If the USD keeps falling in value, then you won't have to wait for 1 iqd = 1 usd, they will just match up 1 to 1.
That would be extreme poverty in the US if that happened before any IQD revaluation pegging iqd to usd.
Don't go all out an broke n this one, I'd say pick up some silver and diversify between hard currencies such as Australian that is going up, aud jumped about 3 cents per usd overnight in 1 day.
The Central Bank of Iraq has $146,142,000.00 USD in their reserve.
They are currently not selling any USD so evidently they are building up US reserve to a predetermined amount before revaluation.
Here's the Central Bank of Iraq: http://www.cbi.iq/index.php?pid=CurrencyAuctions
In 2008 when oil was $148/barrel Iraq made a huge windfall and the Government Of Iraq (GOI) purchased their dinars on the open market place at a rate of $1.5 Billion/Month. At that rate in little over a year, Iraq could have repurchased all their IQD. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/21/world/middleeast/21security.html?hp%3Cbr%3E Read Page 3
You mentioned that Venezuela, Iran, and Russia could provide similar lessons for future Iraq expectations. On this note, Iraq differs because their IQD is "controlled" meaning, it is purposefully being held down and disconnected from their GDP. Reason ~ They do not want to repeat the mistakes of East Germany after WWII, when they rebuilt.
For all practical purposes imo, one can approach this from several points of view:
1)
Either Iraq will soon tie their Dinar to the GDP (instant reval) and then like any country rebuilding and growing slowly or aggressively appreciate further or
2)
The Dinar will reval not only upon upon the GDP/GNP but also by political & financial contrivances. IOWs, meaning, printed currency treated as a 'Bond' via The Federal Reserve.
Americans were given the opportunity to hold the dinar just as if they were Iraqi citizens by a Presidential Executive Order in 2003. This in no way, is similar to purchasing currency as an investment by normal protocol, when in other nation states the currency is already pegged to their GDP/GNP. Americans purchased the IQD within a 'controlled' state.
The current note inventory of IQD is no where near 30 trillion dinars which many point to on the m2. The 30 trillion represents value and not note inventory. So when people compare 20 billion for Kuwait to 30 trillion Iraq one must demarcate
if it is value or note inventory. The M1 refers best to note inventory.
The best that I can glean about the Iraq note inventory, is approximately 5 trillion which is still up there. But remember they spent $1.5 Billion/Month in repurchasing the IQD beginning in 2008. The value of the IQD has appreciated in a 'controlled' state since 2003 when it was introduced.
It has been 8 long years for some and 6 long years for me waiting for the Dinar to be pegged to their GDP/GNP ~ but it is still in a state of flux. Iraq since June 2011 has been rapidly approaching their own sovereignty and soon to be on the WTO with their currency.
So back to the 'Bond' type scenario of #2.
Its my opinion, that even though Iraq itself may not be able to justify a higher than what we would consider a 'reasonable' reval, I think with the assistance of the Federal Reserve we will see just that.
Its my belief that the Fed Reserve itself wants to see a higher than usual reval.
Some reasons are to discourage corporate hoarding of the Dinar when they are alerted to a lower but substantial reval.
Another reason is to prevent double dipping upon their economy, IOWs by exploiting Iraq's resources at increased but low expenses after its full reinstatement into the world economy.
The Fed Reserve wants to shut out other competition, but enough so to still allow growth. This is why they want the IQD revalued high 'to lock in' their investment into Iraq.
The Presidential E.O. is an obligation.
The Fed Reserve will repurchase our IQDs with their printed money and will hold those IQDs in their vaults as a form of IOUs that Iraq will have to pay off. While the Fed Reserve waits for Iraq to do so, The Fed Reserve can exert extreme power over Iraq as a debt holder ~ they want to be assured that they are calling the shots in the world economy and that Iraq does not get too big for their britches.
This was done to India, Argentina, Israel, Spain, Greece etc. The Fed Reserve will control nation state sovereignty via finical contrivances. This is what is being down to the USA now. We are being flooded by indebtedness via the 2008 Wall Street bailout that has expanded from the $700 Billion TARP into a $12.8 Trillion Black Hole. USA has been flooded into subjugation to the Fed Reserve a private company owned by the Rothschilds.
So in my opinion, the revalue will be high and will coinside with the devaluation of the USD.
This scenario for a higher than usual reval on the IQD, is to indebt Iraq to The Fed Reserve who already holds dinars and started this process in 2003. Think of our investment in the IQD as a 'bond' that will be given a certain higher than usual reval out of the 'controlled' state. The Feds will simply print the money (U.S. taxpayers) will have to back and then the Fed Reserve will hold the dinars for the Iraqi taxpayers to back. Its a win win for the Fed Reserve, as all they do is print the money, set in motion the game, and its always the tax payer who must bring value to the printed money.
Presently, most of the dinars are held by banks , corporations, a few Iraq citizens and only about 3% of IQD note inventory are held by American Citizens. So it is quit doable. Who controls all the banks in the end? The Fed Reserve aka; Rothschild.
If scenario #2 just doesn't fly with you, ask yourself how in the world did The Fed Reserve sink The USA from $700 Billion Tarp to $12.8 Trillion in less than 3 years?
http://www.pbs.org/wnet/need-to-know/economy/the-true-cost-of-the-bank-bailout/3309/
Which pumper do you get your info from Rasica?
LZ, the poster provided links to back hos well articulated statement, and with all of that, all you can come up with is the sam,e old tired "pumper" line? I'd say you've been schooled! Game, set & match!
Rasica Pumped dinar for a long time on IHUB until a guy named Aerospace made him look like a fool.
Stew I heard that :0) Quit frankly, Aerospace should have used facts.
New lop article. Making it even clearer no RV coming.
http://translate.google.com/translate?js=n&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&layout=2&eotf=1&sl=ar&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.daralhayat.com%2Fportalarticlendah%2F292995
"and can make any transactions in both currencies for existing and new, what's goods on the current price of 1000 dinars for example, a customer can give the seller the present paper the category of 1,000 dinars, as well as currency can give him a new category of one dinar"
Very clear. A new currency will be introduced. During the exchange peroid both will exist. Something that currently cost 1000 dinars (say a can of coke) can be purchased with 1000 current dinars, or you could use 1 new dinar. So obviously 1 new dinar will be worth 1000 of the current dinar everone holds. No RV... straight lop. Classic redenomination.
Rothschild owns the CBI & The Federal Reserve.
Try talking him into allowing a Lop when he has trillions
At the Reserve & virtually non on the streets of Iraq.
These phony Lop News stories have come and gone
For years. During the same time Iraq has bought back
The dinar off the free market at $1.5 billion per month
And the inflation goes down and the dinar keeps
Appreciating.
You’re still a classic dinar pumper Rasica. Call all legitimate news stories and CBI documentation phony. The make up some fantasy stories, and bring your own special gibberish that you were famous for… and claim it all facts.
This stuff is too funny. I guess there was a “Dinar Guru Summit” at the BH Group a week or so ago. Then late last week… the BH Group was raided by the IRS and shut down. There’s also the news of a South Dakota dealer now being charged with various illegal activity surrounding his dinar business. Dinar Trade, Ali, I think was the biggest dinar dealer in the country. He apparently got raided by the IRS also. His dinar on reserve program is an illegal activity. Of course he made up a lie about why he stopped offering the service. Who knows what else they were going to bust him on. Well… he fled the country and set up shop in Europe somewhere.
But don’t worry guys. The 100,000% increase these gurus and dealers are pushing is right around the corner.
Soon there will be no dinar dealers to buy this crap back when the redenomination is implemented. Maybe that's part of the plan.
My cousin is President of a bank here and when I asked him if any of this "speculation" is true he said "The US Treasury told us, Just know that when it happens its going to be alot. So be prepared."
Michelle.....what bank is your cousin the ''President" of? I challange any of the bank presidents to come forth. I bet you wont cause your lying!
Why so angry, if you dont believe in a RV then put your efforts into something else. The US as well as B of A, Chase and other big Institutions own and have stockpiled (electronically mostly) tons of the stuff. After the RV if you didnt get in, at least buy B of A stock and get a nice return.
I would bet $100 you guys own some dinar? Just in case your wrong : )
I find it funny that years ago in this investment we all heard that there will be a lot of lop talk to get investers out before any type of rv. That is exactly what they have been doing, blowing smoke. If you don't need the cash, don't let these lop articles scare you out of this investment. My local banker at 5/3 bank told me a couple months ago that they were told to stop selling dinar, by the government, cause something was up, and they would be told when they could start selling again, They were also told it would be big!
I find it funny you and others would believe that, since it's dinar dealers and pumpers who have told you that.
Ken, michelle, R1 you are absolutely logically sensible in your responses.. I once came across a term in college chemistry called a "state function" which a variable, state quantity, or functions acquired state is independent of the path taken to reach that particular state.. The United states has invested 4 trillion into this, Donald Trumph has invested millions among other investors... The facts of cause & effect are clear resulting in growth by numbers in regards to Iraq & is simply a waiting game, period! Anger & Pessimism isn't necessary here! God Bless us all...
I got into this investment because my sisters neighbors daughters boyfriend has an uncle who was told by his co-workers nephews boss who told him that the president of XXXXXXXX Bank said that this was gonna be a great investment......So it must be true!
I know this one family, the husband lost his job, they took their savings and bought big into this Dinar RV thing. Every time I talk with them they keep saying "when the dinar rv's, we're going to do this or that.....". I feel sad about all of this. I have tried to gently encourage them to accept that they have been scammed, to forget this and find another way to lift themselves up out of poverty, but they then act as if I'm the fool. Very sad.
To Anyone who has Dinars...Paitience is a virtue. If you have not invested your lifes savings than your good. I've been following these bloggers....Stew, LZ, mainly Stew mainly because they're on every site that I tend to find any news on. Everything Stew knows is speculation and regurgitated info with some historic facts here and there. If you come across people who don't beleive in your investment who cares! They care more than the investors as they can't stop talking about what a sham it is.
The biggest question is not when, because it will happen one day. The question is will they allow the exchange of dinars to foreign exchange holders?
The word is "gamble", not "investment". I was willing to potentially lose $600 on a "gamble", and only purchased 500,000 dinar. If something happens, great. If not, oh well. As for the nay-sayers, I find it funny that they have nothing better to do than to poo-poo the situation, and are spending a lot of time and energy trying to do so. Why should any of you before mentioned poo-pooers care about what others do with thier money? It's really none of your business, so stop trying to "save" people.
the currency must be RE DENOMINATED, before any RV. I really do not believe the RV will be big. You may double your investment, but, not much more than that.
The subsequent rv following the redenomination anticipated by parliament by the year's end might not be great initially; but of coarse time & growth are the only constituents to bring increase to the nation & it's currency.
God bless America. I hope we all come out of this economy better people, rather than greedy people. It would be great if we could all learn to get along. Peace would bring stability to much of the world, both economically and emotionally.
Amen Denny...
All in my opinion:
There will be no re-denomination.
There will be no LOP.
The internet is replete with misinformation to keep dinar purchases at bay, which is typical modus operandi for rv speculation.
All dinar holders will be treated as if they were Iraqi Nationals and not Foreign Nationals. Per Presidential order.
They will probably introduce lower denoms when dinar is rv'd closer to usd level either a little lower or above.
The M2 has no reality to inventory in 'controlled state of dinar value' as it is today 1170.
When Iraq removes three zeros it is nothing more than nomenclature for removing three zeros not from the currency, but from cost of goods aka; revaluation.
For example, a coke may have cost 1170 dinars but in a 1 to 1 revaluation, the dinars stay the same and the coke costs $1.170. Iraq has then therefore, revalued by removing three decimal points or if you will _ if the coke cost 1000 dinars, it is now $1. Iraq has then therefore, revalued by removing three zeros ~ the dinars stay the same.
There is a great deal of substantial evidence supporting this and the best is Iraq buying back the large notes off the free market at a rate of $1.5 BILLION USD/month. At that rate, Iraq could have easily bought all their dinars back in less than 1.5 years. See New York Times article above.
The argument of LOP so that it is more easily handled, is rendered solved instantaneously when they revalue without touching the dinar, as it will be increased in value and less notes will be needed.
The current market place:
There are very few notes out in the market place, as most use USD for predominate western commodities. However, dinars are used for mostly eastern commodities like sitting around campfire bidding for a camel or some such thing.
They wish the Iraqi people to use the dinar for everything and that is done by revaluation up or beyond the USD. Market places simply fill their billboards with the new revaluation by moving the decimal over three places from the OLD dinar pricing for the last 10 years and that value is LOCKED into their original dinars.
I believe the dinar will be revalued above the current USD so as to over come any desire to use the USD note in Iraq.
Remember that Rothschild owns the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Central Bank Of Iraq. During the reval and buying the dinars back from investors is of little consequence and poses no obstacle to over come. But, the amount of dinars outstanding in relation to the population is by design in order to subjugate Iraq to the two central banks for dinar notes held in their vaults.
You imagination and gibberish are entertaining.
But back to reality.
New lop article. Making it even clearer no RV coming.
http://translate.google.com/translate?js=n&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&layout=2&eotf=1&sl=ar&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.daralhayat.com%2Fportalarticlendah%2F292995
“and can make any transactions in both currencies for existing and new, what’s goods on the current price of 1000 dinars for example, a customer can give the seller the present paper the category of 1,000 dinars, as well as currency can give him a new category of one dinar”
Very clear. A new currency will be introduced. During the exchange peroid both will exist. Something that currently cost 1000 dinars (say a can of coke) can be purchased with 1000 current dinars, or you could use 1 new dinar. So obviously 1 new dinar will be worth 1000 of the current dinar everone holds. No RV… straight lop. Classic redenomination.
Stew,
I have a friend that sends me all the Okie and Frank/Delta pumps for when i need a few laughs. The craziness in turning into full blown out desperation. Every day they say thats ''It's all done'', ''Tomorrow we will be cashing in'' and my favorites are the ''What to do and how to manage your new fortune''. My guess is that the dealers want to unload their supply of IQD before its too late. The rates they are giving defy any kind of logic.....$5.25 to $8.55 to over $11.00.
The best pumper post I have ever read says that if the Iraqi Government or the IMF keep stalling, GOD will handle the big RV to save the world!
It's really sad. There's a new redenomination article almost every day now. How poeple can continue to fall for this crap is beyond me.
I doubt it will happen... but I hope a lot of these pumpers are being tracked and end up in jail.
I'm sure Rasica knows all about it though. Being a pumper of penny stocks before coming over to the dinar probably taught him how closely he can flirt the laws and get away with it.
Well put Rasica in articulation... But the redenomination has already been discussed... And it has been said that the initial redenomination value will be greater than the USD by 17% & proposals for that have already commenced to reach the anticipated time frame...
rasica, I am not sure where you get your information from, but I like it. It goes with them saying that they aspire to the day that the dinar is the same as it was back in the 70's and early 80's.
stew, the lop articles, that come out daily, are just smoke. They talk the lop talk, to scare off all the scared conservative people that like to play it safe. They know that by spreading the lop word over a time period, they will get around 90% of the dinar holders like us, to get scared and sell there dinar, so they don't loose all of there money. Think about it, really, when do you really think that your government actually told you the truth. Most politicians tell you what they think you want to hear. or tell you what they need to , so as to keep the peace, not have a run on the markets, not to scare everyone into a panic that they can not control. Remember, those that have the power want to keep the power
You are a dinar pumpers dream come true r1i2c3
First of all how wrong are you, and your an expert, let me just school you really fast. The removing of the 000's as you state and as Dr. Shabibi states will take place are 2 different things He states he will remove the 000's notes from circulation not re-denominate. Next to shot your story out of the water completely is that it is a fact the IMF (International Monetary Fund) and the United States "Artificially Deflated" the IQD which was worth $3.33 USD to 1 Dinar prior to the war, in order to stop Saddam from purchasing WMD (Weapons of Mass Destruction). Do your research before you a supposed trusted expert speak on what you do not know.
If you all remember what was said in order to not tip us off to what they are doing is that there would be a lot of articles lying to us about what they haven't done the closer they get to RV, that is going on right now andhas been for the last few weeks.
Those of you out there getting mad about "pumpers" need to get a life. I spend a little bit of time on the internet because I have a LIFE, and I don't want to spend my time reading a lot of negative crap. Your comments are not helping anyone at all, they are just wasting our time. Where did the money go when the Dinar reduced drastically in value? When you are dealing with money, you can consider it like an algebraic equation. When you subtract on one side, you must add on the other, or put it back (rough comparison, but similar). Sure it is a gamble, but I did all of my homework, and consulted with many of my banking colleagues. It is a gamble worth taking. I spend more money a year on designer handbags than what I have put into this. The point of this mini rant is to tell you that if you have to spend all of this time and energy into downing others (even though some of the things that have been said are idiotic), than you need to really consider what you are doing with your life.
I just read thru the entire thread. New words popping up I have never heard before. Right out of the old days when the Rothchilds sent out men thru the pony express to spread lies about the Confederate Dollar and then bought it all up as little mice (people) scrambled to sell sell sell.
Its not worth much, my knowledge of the IQD. What it will do for how much when or why I do not know. I live my life trusting my instincts. Never made an investment in my entire life. single mother of two, figured I could stand to gamble away a few hundred dollars.
Never invest more than youre willing to lose. The thing that gets me, in all of this, even as I too write to all of you strangers, is that people are all riled up about this thing. Being unkind, and harsh to others. maybe there are "pumpers", hell Im sure there are. I quit following the "dinar talk" months ago, its overwhelming to see all the snapping and read all the BS.
I hope for anyone who holds this money, to include myself and my friends, that something happens. Listen folks, .10 would be great per dinar! Money I didnt have today could well be there when this happens tomorrow.....well, not tomorrow, but you know what I mean.
all of it a mute point, for we cant stuff our pockets with it when we die. its only money. I send out many blessings to you all.
No need to hard energies over this.....it is what it is.
Miracles Will Happen.....
MsPeg
Amen Ms. Peg... And That's real talk rmrjlr...
Amen Ms. Peg...
I HAVE TAKEN NOTICE THAT THE AMERICAN PEOPLE ARE GENERALLY SICK OF HIGH TAXES, GOVT EMPLOYEES (pensions etc) AND ENTITLEMENTS TO EVERYONE THAT ASKS FOR ONE. I HOPE WE DO MAKE A LITTLE ON THE IQD AS IT HAS BECOME HARDER AND HARDER TO KEEP WHAT WE EARN IN THIS COUNTRY. WE SHOULD BE CONCERNED ABOUT TAKING OUR COUNTRY BACK. IT HAS A LOT OF PROBLEMS, BUT IT IS STILL MY COUNTRY. WE ALL SHOULD BE WORKING TOGETHER AS AMERICANS INSTEAD OF BEING ANGRY AT EVERYONE THAT BLOGS.
Does anyone known any truth behind the dinar? I invested but I'm kinda worried about the turn out there is a lot of people talking and I'm not sure who knows and who don't! If anyone could help me out I would appreciate it! Thanks