Weekly Security Update for 2 August 2012

Southern Iraq (South Central and South East Regions)

The South Central Region recorded six incidents during this reporting period, up one from last week count, but still below the 2012 weekly average of nine. Reporting was split between Babil, Wasit and Qadisiya, with no incidents reported in either Karbala or Najaf. Two incidents were reported in Babil, an IED in Jabala and a UVIED in Imam. Given the levels of violence seen elsewhere in Iraq over the period, and the fact that north Babil has historically seen large numbers of sectarian based attacks carried out by Sunni Arab extremists, this low figure is somewhat surprising amd may reflect the localised success of ISF operations that occurred in the area in the run up to Ramadan. The only incident of significance over the period was a VBIED which detonated in a market area in Diwaniyah on 23 July, this was assessed as likely connected with the multi-city attacks conducted by AQI and appears to have been the only attack that day which targeted the predominantly Shi’a southern provinces. The Diwaniya attack was reported to have led to clashes between ISF and local civilians angry with recent security breaches. Unconfirmed reports claimed that another VBIED was intercepted in the city by ISF on 25 July.

Activity levels in the South East Region remained subdued with only one incident noted during this reporting period. The incident occurred in Dhi Qar province and involved an armed tribal clash resulting in up to ten people being killed. For the first week in 2012, no violent incidents were reported in Basra province. Activity in Basra was focussed on peaceful demonstrations demanding an improvement in electricity supply and infrastructure. While incident rates elsewhere often increase during Ramadan, Basra appears to have bucked this trend. This is perhaps due to the nature of violence in the city, which is not currently believed to be ideological in nature, but perhaps related to personal disputes or lower level political dynamics. It is therefore possible that a combination of Ramadan and increased ISF activity has acted to curtail activity within the city.