Central Iraq (Baghdad and Anbar)
Baghdad recorded 52 incidents this week, a slight increase from last week’s figure of 46 and still considerably above the 2012 weekly average of 28. Recent weeks have seen the highest spike in violence in Baghdad since December 2011 and represents a continuation of the steady increase in violence seen in the capital since early July. While these weekly statistics do not necessarily indicate that security is significantly deteriorating in the capital, the statistical evidence is supported by other factors, such as public and political concerns over violence in the capital and reports of increasingly disruptive security measures. The resurgence in Sunni insurgency seen in 2012 is doubtless having an effect on life in the capital, as elsewhere in northern and western Iraq. The increased figures may also reflect greater coverage of criminality and other small-scale attacks not necessarily related to insurgent activity. This week’s figures included nineteen targeted attacks on mid to senior level ISF and Iraqi government members; eleven other shooting incidents, three under-vehicle IEDs, ten small scale IEDs, two grenade and two VBIED attacks and a third VBIED found and cleared. In line with recent patterns, there was a cluster of IEDs in the majority Sunni areas in western Baghdad and a slight spike in incidents in the outlying areas of Taji and Madain.
Levels of violence in Anbar province decreased again this week, with fourteen incidents reported. This figure remains just above the 2012 weekly average of eleven. Yet again, the focus of incidents was in Fallujah district, with a total of seven IEDs reported, including bomb attacks against the ISF and a Mukhtar from Jubail, and several attacks in the area of Amiriyah to the southeast of Fallujah city. Recent weeks have also seen an emerging pattern of incidents concentrated in eastern Anbar, adjacent to the western Baghdad suburbs of Nasar Wa Salem and Abu Ghraib. Elsewhere in Anbar there was a VBIED disarmed in Ramadi and a separate IED detonation in the city, two IEDs were reported in towns along the Euphrates River and the assassination of an Anbar Provincial Council member was reported south of Haditha. The absence of high profile attacks this week possibly resulted from increased security measures in both Ramadi and Fallujah. As with the North Central region, insurgents may be using this period of relative calm to replenish stocks.
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