Central Iraq (Baghdad and Anbar)
Baghdad reported 44 violent incidents this week, which is some way above the current weekly average for 2012 of 30 and marks a return to higher levels of violence following a relatively subdued two week period. While this may suggest that the insurgent campaign seen over the summer months is yet to run its course – perhaps even that the higher levels of violence associated with this campaign are becoming the norm - it should also be borne in mind that reporting from the capital is inconsistent and frequently reflects non-insurgent related violence. The largest numbers of incidents this week were directed against ISF and other government employees, with a total of eighteen such attacks being recorded. Of these fifteen targeted ISF (seven shooting incidents, six involving explosive devices and two murders) and three targeted other government employees or locations (two involving small arms fire and one an explosive device). The remainder of attacks against ISF and other government employees primarily targeted ISF checkpoints and patrols, or personnel in private vehicles or homes. This week also saw two mass casualty attacks targeting civilians. On 18 October an IED detonated near a café frequented by Shia in Karadah killing one civilian and wounding six. Following this on 20 October there was a double IED attack in the Bab al-Dirawaza area of Kadhimiyah in northwest Baghdad, killing 11 civilians and wounding 48. The attacks occurred in a commercial area in close proximity to the Kadhimiyah Mosque. The upcoming Eid al-Adha celebrations presents the occasion for further attacks. Recent weeks have seen warnings regarding the possible intent of insurgent groups to target Private Security Details (PSDs) in the Baghdad area. While these remain vague and non-specific, they should not be discounted.
Anbar Province reported ten incidents during the reporting period, a slight increase from last week’s figure and is on par with the weekly average for 2012. Reporting from Anbar has been particularly variable since the end of July, reflecting the volatility of the province, and the current figure is relatively subdued within this time-frame. There were no large scale attacks reported over the course of the week. For the second week running Fallujah District in the far east of the province recorded relatively few incidents, with a single VBIED attack wounding four soldiers in Fallujah City and a shooting incident targeting a Ministry of Finance employee. This district has recently been by far the most active in the province, with insurgents launching almost daily shooting and IED attacks targeting ISF and other Government employee. While the relative inactivity in Fallujah directly reflects a reduction in the core insurgent activity of the province, it does not necessarily reflect a change in security fundamentals and violence may likely increase over the coming weeks. Elsewhere in the province, there were two under-vehicle IEDs and a shooting incident in Ramadi; an unusual indirect-fire (IDF) barrage on a police compound in Hit; an IED in al-Qaim along with IDF fired from the Syrian side of the border and a kidnapping in Rutbah in the far west of the province.
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