Turkey Unlikely to Upset Iraq in KRG Energy Deal

Turkey is dependent on Russia, Iran and Azerbaijan to fuel its growing economy. It also imports liquefied natural gas from Nigeria and Algeria. The KRG’s vast reserves provide a new and cheaper source of energy that planners in Ankara cannot overlook.

Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's government remains strongly opposed to all agreements arrived at independently from Baghdad. It was interesting therefore that Nechirvan Barzani’s visit to Istanbul last week came only days after talks between Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu and his Iraqi counterpart, Hoshyar Zebari, in Ankara on Oct. 25.

Those talks were designed to maintain the momentum in recent efforts to break the ice between the two countries following a period of tension during which Iraq accused Turkey of meddling in its affairs and destabilizing the country. Ankara in turn has been accusing the Maliki government of oppressing the minority Sunnis, and has US support on this point. Tensions have also been fueled by different positions on Syria.

Davutoglu will visit Baghdad at the end of this month. There is also talk of visits by Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan to Baghdad and Maliki to Ankara in the near future. Some diplomats in Ankara wonder if news of the energy deals clinched between Turkey and the KRG will unravel this attempt at rapprochement between the Erdogan and Maliki governments.

The Maliki government is aware of the growing energy cooperation between Ankara and Erbil and still appears keen to patch up differences with Turkey. Meanwhile, the KRG and Baghdad have also been trying to patch up their differences, following a “seven-point agreement” signed in April in Baghdad by Nechirvan Barzani and Maliki.

The agreement proposed, among other things, the forming of a committee to draft a law on oil and gas and a law on the distribution of these resources. The committee is also supposed to work on a draft law setting the administrative borders of provinces. This is a crucial issue for both sides, given their long-standing dispute over the oil-rich city of Kirkuk, which has brought them the brink of conflict.