Turkey Unlikely to Upset Iraq in KRG Energy Deal

This does not mean, however, that pragmatism does not exist.

Turkey, Iraq and the KRG are not immune to the Syrian crisis, which continues to provide a fertile breeding ground for al-Qaeda-related groups. Jabhat al-Nusra, the largest of these, is an enemy for Kurds and Shiites alike, and the source of a number of security concerns for Turkey. Denise Natali is right to indicate that Ankara’s unwillingness to further undermining Iraqi sovereignty is influenced by geopolitical trends and in particular the intractable Syrian crisis.

The same holds for Baghdad, which is already suffering the negative fallout from this crisis on a daily basis. The KRG, for its part, knows that without Turkey it has no way out for its oil and gas other than Iraq. It is also aware that normalization between Ankara and Baghdad is inevitable, sooner or later. This “trilateral interdependence” is forcing reconciliation.

There are many, of course, who say Erdogan, Maliki and the Barzani family are merely politicking here because of upcoming elections or various domestic difficulties. Once the smoke screen clears, they say, little will be seen to have changed. But with strategic resources like oil and gas — which are also potential sources of conflict — on the one hand, and growing security concerns due to Syria on the other, this appears too cynical a view.

It also overlooks the pressures Washington is exerting on the three capitals — over which it has varying degrees of influence — to work out their differences, especially now that the Obama administration has decided to take a proactive role in the Middle East.