Turkey Unlikely to Upset Iraq in KRG Energy Deal

The signing of this agreement was followed up with a rare visit by Maliki to Erbil in May and by KRG President Massoud Barzani to Baghdad in July. The agreement, however, still awaits implementation, signaling that full normalization is yet to be secured.

Turkey also supports the agreement and Turkish officials have told Al-Monitor that contrary, to what is being claimed by some quarters, Ankara stands behind any step which enhances Iraq’s territorial integrity and stability. This is not mere rhetoric either, since Iraq’s dissolution as a unified state would cause serious headaches for Turkey which is already dealing with the fallout from Syria. Regional developments are pushing Ankara, Erbil and Baghdad into a more cooperative mode despite the unresolved issues among them.

Despite the relative stability in northern Iraq, and the oil wealth which is transforming the region, analysts point out that the situation is not as rosy for the Iraqi Kurds as might appear at first glance. For one thing, there is the point made by Denise Natali in her Nov. 4 article for Al-Monitor under the telling title, “How independent is the Iraqi-Kurdish pipeline to Turkey?”

As Natali indicates, the Kurdish pipeline will be autonomous in some ways because it lies within Northern Iraq, and is also controlled by the KRG and linked to a Kurdish controlled metering station. But despite this it will still have to connect to the existing Iraqi-Turkish pipeline to transport Kurdish crude to Turkey’s Mediterranean port in Ceyhan and to international markets.

This shows that Baghdad will be in the picture on way or another, at least in terms of the first oil pipeline between Northern Iraq and Turkey. The question, therefore, is not so much whether the KRG will be independent in exploiting its energy resources, but why it is going ahead with this pipeline knowing it will not be fully independent from the federal government.

The flip side to the question is why Baghdad is opting for a thaw with Ankara, even though it is aware of the growing energy links between Turkey and the KRG. This is the Middle East, of course, where not everything progresses along expected or logical lines.