However, the lack of vision as to what comes after the liberation has given IS space to catch its breath and mount a series of offensives in Anbar and some areas of Salahuddin, especially the strategic Beiji refinery. At the same time, fears increased as IS attacked parts of the city of Ramadi on April 14, and subsequently took over the northern and eastern parts.
IS experienced a huge defeat in terms of morale in Tikrit. However, its military structure remained intact, which made it easier for the organization to move from defense to offense on many other axes.
The fighting parties faced three scenarios, each with their own strengths and weaknesses:
The first scenario would have had the victorious Iraqi forces advance toward Tikrit from the main areas of Beiji, Hawija and Shirqat, and stop at the southern border of Mosul. This option would have been very difficult due to the lack of real coordination with peshmerga forces operating mainly in the strategic area extending from Hawija in Kirkuk to the outskirts of Mosul.
Leaving Tikrit unprotected would allow IS — which is still in control of the vast desert located to the west of Salahuddin and linking south of Mosul to north of Anbar — to carry out a military encirclement operation as the fighting powers that liberated Tikrit are made up of incoherent armed groups. The latter do not have appropriate logistic support or the aerial cover that allowed for this kind of advancement.
The second scenario would have secured Tikrit and moved toward opening a broad battlefront in Anbar. This demand of the Popular Mobilization Units was impossible because of the way the Anbar residents and tribes perceive these units, and because of the US efforts that aim to train a force composed of Anbar residents to take up this task. However, this force has yet to be armed.
Add to this that the cities of Anbar are geographically complex and extend in the form of a land range through the Euphrates, while a vast desert is located in the south and north of the city. This is why, without the needed military sources, liberating Anbar will be highly challenging.
The scenario that played out, however, saw the forces that occupied Tikrit remain on the borders of the city to impose control and prevent advancement until the appropriate conditions to wage battle in Anbar and Mosul were secured. This allowed IS to compensate for the defeat in Tikrit and push the Iraqi forces into a long-term war of attrition, which will not be in their favor.
Comments are closed.