After Tikrit, what Next for Iraqi Forces?

Before battles are waged in Mosul and Anbar, various key factors must be taken into consideration:

• Mosul and Anbar are densely populated in comparison with Tikrit and Salahuddin, both of which seemed depopulated upon liberation.
• Anbar has a tribal-religious aspect and deep tribal disputes within its societal structures over military operations and the war on IS. There are also disputes over the position toward the Iraqi government and the Popular Mobilization Units. This is in addition to scores of armed groups that became active specifically in Anbar; it is still unknown if they allied with IS or are in a dormant state.
• Mosul is a complex city and leans toward the peshmerga forces, Iraqi forces and Popular Mobilization Units, as well as US forces. Entering this city requires a plan that joins the efforts of all these powers in addition to that of Turkey — which has a large intelligence presence in the city. A force made up of Mosul residents should also be set up and ready for guerrilla fights.
• The battle of Tikrit took place within a very suitable environment for Iraqi forces. The preparations for these battles, however, are unlikely to be finalized in the remaining days of spring. To fight battles in Mosul and Anbar during a hot summer will be an uncalculated risk, which could mean that these battles will take place in the fall.

The war on IS is seen by many in and outside Iraq to be mainly strategic. Different requirements are needed to defeat IS. These requirements are not just military, but also relate to a unified political vision, and to finding solutions to the social and legal crises that allowed IS to thrive. It also requires permanent mechanisms to reach internal, regional and international consensus over this war.

Fulfilling all these requirements is not an easy task. The Iraqi government and all parties involved in the war on terrorism need to exert further efforts.