Putin boxed in by Iran, Turkey on Iraqi Kurdish referendum

Putin likely implored Erdogan to back off his threat to shut down the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline. Rosneft, the Russian state oil company, expects the pipeline to be open for business, and Moscow expects revenues from the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) as a return on its investment. Without the pipeline, open borders or payments from Baghdad to Erbil, the KRG will go broke, a disaster for the Russian venture.

Putin may have had some effect on Erdogan, who has threatened economic sanctions, conducted joint exercises with Iraq troops on the border and claims he will now only deal with Iraqi authorities in Baghdad, freezing out the KRG. Two days before Putin’s arrival, Erdogan threatened “to close the oil taps, all [their] revenues will vanish and they will not be able to find food when our trucks stop going to northern Iraq." Following Putin’s visit, the Turkish government seemed to somewhat hedge on that threat, saying it would avoid targeting civilians in whatever retaliatory steps it takes.

Putin may have an ally in the Turkish business community, which is seeking to mitigate the economic costs of any retaliation against the Kurdistan Region, as Mortimer writes. Turkey exported $4.5 billion worth of goods through the Habur border crossing the first six months of this year, Mahmut Bozarslan reports, and Turkish contractors are doing over $5 billion in business annually in Iraqi Kurdistan, Turkey’s second largest market for contractors after Turkmenistan.

Putin can hardly count on either Erdogan’s restraint or for the Turkish president to defer to economic rationality in making his decision. Turkey’s opposition to the Kurdistan Region’s independence is crystal clear and void of caveats. Indeed, the good relations between Ankara and Erbil over the past decade were more the exception than the rule. The independence referendum has put back into play Kirkuk, where there is a sizable Turkmen population. Ankara is now lined up with Baghdad in seeking to assure that control of the oil-rich area stays with the central government.