Northern Iraq (North and North Central Regions – including the KRG)
The Northern Region reported a total of 28 incidents during the period, slightly above the 2012 weekly average of 23. This return to “normal” levels after an unusual spike last week continues a pattern of widely variable figures seen over the last few weeks. Ninawa, where almost all incidents occurred, has typically seen consistent levels of violence over 2012 and this variability is unusual. Both recent spikes occurred during weeks which saw nationwide spectaculars and they may therefore reflect Ninawa’s increasing exposure to such incidents. This possibly results from an increasingly networked insurgency and the tactical ‘boon of chaos’ across the border in Syria. However the spikes may also reflect inconsistent reporting, which is thought to be a policy of provincial authorities.
The North Central Region reported 43 incidents during the period, significantly above the 2012 weekly average of 35. Reporting from the North Central Region is highly variable. There are numerous overlapping areas of insurgent hot-spots which flare up cyclically. Furthermore, Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) operations appear primarily to be reactive to these increases in violence, creating a highly unstable security picture. Over the longer term, however, the situation appears to be steadily deteriorating, with insurgent campaigns becoming fiercer and more protracted and the ISF response relying increasingly on large-scale operations, including the use of air-power. The most active areas this week include Shirqat, in the far north of Salah ad-Din;Kirkuk and in the lower reaches of the Tigris River Valley.
Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) – No significant incident were reported during the period in the three provinces that comprise the KRG (Dahuk,Erbil and Sulaymaniyah). The only incident of note occurred on 15 September, when family members demanding the release of a relative who was being held for killing his daughter, attacked a prison in Erbil.
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