Author Archive | Caroline de Winter

Weekly Security Update 27 May - 02 June 2014

By Anne-Laure Barbosa at Constellis Consulting www.constellis-consulting.com Casualty figures released in June indicated that nearly 800 people were killed in violence across Iraq in May, making it the deadliest month so far this year. This uptick in violence moved in parallel with an increase of tensions in the political sphere, as divisive and opaque parliamentary negotiations confirm […]

Weekly Security Update 20 - 26 May 2014

By Constellis Consulting www.constellis-consulting.com Following preliminary electoral results confirming current Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki as the frontrunner, allegations of fraud multiplied over the reporting period, putting in jeopardy the process of quickly forming a government. On 22 May, former Prime Minister and leader of the Iraqiyya coalition Iyad Allawi publicly questioned the fairness of the elections, formulating […]

Weekly Security Update 13 - 19 May 2014

By Constellis Consulting www.constellis-consulting.com Initial election results released by the Independent High Electoral Commission on May 19 showed that Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki’s State of Law coalition won the largest share of seats, with at least 94 elected MPs in the 328-member parliament. Though previous estimates predicted that Maliki’s party would lead the polls, proportions exceeded expectations […]

Weekly Security Update 06 - 12 May 2014

By Constellis Consulting www.constellis-consulting.com With official results due in the next few days, electoral manoeuvres defined Iraq’s political environment this week, with party leaders seeking to form alliances and build coalitions to advance their own interests. Ultimately, the ability of political figures to navigate this system, more than the poll results, will determine the shape of Iraq’s […]

Weekly Security Update 29 Apr - 05 May 2014

By Constellis Consulting www.constellis-consulting.com Despite persistent ISIS threats against the general elections held on 30 April, increased security precautions managed to contain some of the expected violence and encourage Iraqis to cast their ballots, with a relatively high turnout established at 59% by the Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC). As a telling illustration of this enthusiastic political […]

Weekly Security Update 22 - 28 April 2014

By Constellis Consulting www.constellis-consulting.com A well-planned and extensive ISIS assault against political rallies and polling stations formed part of a predictable surge in violence as Iraq prepares to vote in the first elections since the US withdrawal. The scale of the challenge facing the ISF, as they prepare to secure the electorate who will cast their votes […]

Weekly Security Update 15 - 21 Apr 2014

By Constellis Consulting www.constellis-consulting.com As parliamentary elections approach and competing coalitions seek to position themselves ahead of the votes, the reporting period was marked by a series of movements in the political sphere. In Kurdistan, after months of unsuccessful negotiations, the KDP and Gorran reached an agreement for a new government along with the Islamic League, on […]

Weekly Security Update 08 - 14 Apr 2014

By Constellis Consulting www.constellis-consulting.com Despite repeated claims that Muqtada al–Sadr will remain on the sidelines of politics with regard to the upcoming elections, the latter has multiplied public appearances, in a clear attempt to influence the voting. On 13 April, Sadr met with influential Shia cleric Ali Al-Sistani and released a joint statement condemning sectarianism and violence. […]

Weekly Security Update 01 - 07 Apr 2014

By Constellis Consulting www.constellis-consulting.com Despite reasserting his retirement from politics on 02 April, Muqtada al-Sadr publicly urged Maliki not to run for a third term, citing the failure of his sectarian policies and the increasingly autocratic nature of the regime. As the parliamentary elections approach, each party seems to be appealing to their own sectarian base, with […]

Weekly Security Update 25 - 31 Mar 2014

By Constellis Consulting www.constellis-consulting.com As the campaign for the upcoming parliamentary elections is set to start on April 01, Iraq’s political environment was marked by inter-party competition and developments which could threaten the organisation of the votes. On 25 March, the board of the Independent Electoral Commission (IHEC) resigned to protest against political and judicial interference, after the […]

Weekly Security Update 18 - 24 Mar 2014

By Constellis Consulting www.constellis-consulting.com The proximity of the general parliamentary elections was reflected in changing security dynamics and political movements across several leading parties. Though campaigning is only set to open on 01 April, legal disputes and vindictive declarations highlighted major divisions between the ruling coalition, Shia factions and Sunni opposition groups. Despite his recent withdrawal from […]

Weekly Security Update 11 - 17 Mar 2014

By Constellis Consulting www.constellis-consulting.com Amid continued violence in Iraq’s central and northern governorates, the proximity of the parliamentary elections triggered a series of political manoeuvres aimed at mobilising the country’s disaffected electorate. In a bid to undermine Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki, Parliament Speaker Osama Al-Nujaifi re-oriented political debates towards the Anbar crisis, criticising the lack of government […]