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By John Lee.

The United States and Iraq have held discussions focused on banking reform, financial compliance, and measures to counter illicit financial activity.

According to a statement by the United States Special Envoy to Iraq, Mark Savaya, the talks involved the U.S. Department of the Treasury and the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), and addressed challenges and reform opportunities across both state-owned and private banks in Iraq.

The discussions emphasised strengthening financial governance, compliance frameworks, and institutional accountability.

The parties agreed to conduct a comprehensive review of suspected payment records and financial transactions involving Iraqi institutions, companies, and individuals linked to:

• Smuggling activities
• Money laundering
• Fraudulent financial contracts and projects
• Financing or enabling terrorist activities

Full statement from the US Special Envoy to Iraq:

Today, I met with the U.S. Department of the Treasury and OFAC to address key challenges and reform opportunities across both state owned and private banks, with a clear emphasis on strengthening financial governance, compliance, and institutional accountability.

We agreed to conduct a comprehensive review of suspected payment records and financial transactions involving institutions, companies, and individuals in Iraq linked to smuggling, money laundering, and fraudulent financial contracts and projects that finance and enable terrorist activities.

We also discussed next steps related to forthcoming sanctions targeting malign actors and networks that undermine financial integrity and state authority.

The relationship between Iraq and the United States has never been stronger than it is today under the leadership of President Donald J. Trump.

(Source: @Mark_Savaya)

The following were the ten most read dinar-related articles on Iraq Business News for the month of December:

1. CBI on Banking Reform, "Digital Dinar", Dollar Transactions
2. Iraqi Central Bank Reduces Supply of Dinars
3. 10 Things the CBI Said About the Iraqi Dinar in 2025
4. CBI Training on Detection of Counterfeit Dinars
5. CBI Chief on the Future of Financial Markets in Iraq
6. 8 Things the IMF Said About Iraq and the Dinar in 2025
7. The Iraqi Dinar Revaluation Deception: 10 Persistent False Claims Exposed
8. Donald Trump and the "Great Iraqi Dinar Revaluation"
9. CBI Instructions for Exchanging Dinars
10. CBI Denies Dinar Revaluation Rumours as Inflation Falls

The previous month's listing can be viewed here.

For more information on the Iraqi dinar, check out IBN's Dinar Page here: https://www.iraq-businessnews.com/the-dinar-page/?swcfpc=1 

By John Lee.

The US Congress has voted in both the House of Representatives and the Senate to repeal the 1991 and 2002 Authorisations for Use of Military Force against Iraq, as part of the National Defense Authorization Act for fiscal year 2026.

The repeal is awaiting ratification by President Donald Trump.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Iraq said the decision marks a fundamental shift in the legal framework governing relations between the two countries, reinforcing respect for Iraq's sovereignty and supporting a renewed strategic partnership.

The ministry added that the repeal sends a clear signal to the international community that Iraq has become a stable and secure environment for attracting investment.

Full statement from the Iraqi Ministry of Foreign Affairs

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs views with great pleasure the historic vote by the US Congress, in both the House of Representatives and the Senate, to repeal the Authorizations for Use of Military Force against Iraq of 1991 and 2002, included within the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2026, and awaits its ratification by President Donald Trump.

The completion of the repeal process for the abovementioned Authorizations for Use of Military Force, in place for over three decades, reflects the change in the convictions of U.S. lawmakers due to a set of domestic and external considerations. This repeal also constitutes a fundamental turning point in reshaping the legal nature of the relationship between the two countries and lays the foundation for a new framework of relations based on respect for Iraq's sovereignty and the closure of the legacy of war. It also enhances the framework of the strategic partnership and conveys to the world a message that Iraq has become an environment safe for attracting investment.

The Ministry considers that the repeal of the Authorizations for Use of Military Force does not damage counterterrorism efforts, because the 2001 Authorization for Use of Military Force, issued in response to the September 11 attacks to address the threats posed by Al-Qaeda and other associated terrorist organizations, remains in force.

The Ministry also reiterates the commitment of the Government of the Republic of Iraq to strengthening bilateral relations in a manner that contributes to building a long-term partnership, serves the interests of the two friendly countries, and supports stability in the Middle East region.

(Source: Iraqi Ministry of Foreign Affairs)

By Ahmed Tabaqchali, Chief Strategist of AFC Iraq Fund.

Any opinions expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Iraq Business News.

"Election kerfuffle, what kerfuffle !!!"

The market, as measured by the Rabee Securities U.S. Dollar Equity Index (RSISX USD Index), was up 5.0% for the month and up 11.2% for the year. Its action for the month was indifferent to the elections, and to expectations of violence or disruptions, as volumes picked up moderately. The RSISX USD index attempted a break-out of the consolidation range that it traded in since December 2024, following a blistering 35.9% three-month rally. While volumes were positive, they were not high enough to support a full break-out. Nevertheless, the market's technical picture continues to remain positive and still suggests that the consolidation phase would continue and that the likely consolidation or pullback should be within its multi-month uptrend (chart below).

Rabee Securities U.S. Dollar Equity Index and Daily Turnover

(Source: Iraq Stock Exchange, Rabee Securities, AFC Research, daily data as of November 30^th.
Note: daily turnover adjusted for block trades)

The RSISX USD Index's constituents' performance were mostly positive, with six stocks up, two stocks flat, and two stocks down. Positive performances were led by National Bank of Iraq (BNOI) and Iraqi Islamic Bank (BIIB), both up 10.3% for the month, followed by Asiaell Telecom (TASC) up 7.3%, Baghdad Soft Drinks (IBSD) up 4.5%, Bank of Baghdad (BBOB) up 2.1%, and Al-Mansour Bank (BMNS) up 0.5%. Both Baghdad Hotel (HBAG) and Al-Mansour Hotels (HMAN) were flat, while negative performances were led by Commercial Islamic Bank of Iraq (BCOI), which was down 2.9%, followed by Al-Mansour Pharmaceuticals Industries (IMAP) down 2.4%,

The parliamentary elections on November 11^th, the sixth such elections since the U.S. invasion in 2003, were mostly greeted by the market as a non-event; crucially, they were peaceful with no indications of a repeat of the political violence that followed the prior elections in October 2021. Their results, however, suggest that the processes of government formations following the elections, while unlikely to repeat the political stalemate following the 2021 elections, yet much like them would extend over many months.

The current political, societal and economic scene is very different from that of 2021; the country is enjoying the fruits of three years of solid stability and strong economic growth. However, unlike in 2021, the upcoming government does not have the benefits of the huge budget surpluses of 2021-22 that allowed the current government to introduce the expansionary three-year budget of 2023-25. The cyclical positives that supported the budget's revenues will become negatives in the different oil price environment, and thus the tailwinds of prior strong oil prices are reversing into headwinds over the next 9-12 months. Current expectations for weaker future oil prices, as measured by Brent crude prices, suggest that prices over the next two years would average 18% less than the average of the prior two years (chart below*).

Market Expectations for Future Oil Prices

As measured by Brent Futures Contracts (USD per barrel)

(Source: Investing.com, AFC Research, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), as of November 28^th)

Countering these cyclical negatives are the positives of the secular transformation of the Iraqi economy, driven by the two key dynamics discussed here often in the past, the cumulative positive effects of the relative stability and structural banking developments. These are in the early stages of their transformation of the economy, a process that would unfold over the next few years, bringing with them high economic growth that would feed into higher corporate profits, and ultimately higher stock market returns. Consequently, while the positives of secular transformation of the economy should trump the cyclical negatives, these cyclical negatives would dampen the growth of non-oil GDP and corporate profits.

The interplay of the secular positives of the transformation of the economy and the cyclical negatives of the current low expectations for oil prices was the subject of two recent webinars:

• Majlis and Markets, December 1^st: "Iraq's Economy: Progress or Pressure?"
• AsharqNow, November 28^th: "The Iraqi Banking Sector: A Weak Link or a Starting Point?"

Note:

* The green line denotes actual Brent prices, the yellow line denotes current expectations of future Brent prices, while the red and grey lines denote prior expectations for future Brent prices that marked the upper and lower ranges for such expectations over the last four years.

Please click here to download Ahmed Tabaqchali's full report in pdf format.

Mr Tabaqchali (@AMTabaqchali) is the Chief Strategist of the AFC Iraq Fund, and is an experienced capital markets professional with over 25 years' experience in US and MENA markets. He is a board member of Arab Bank Iraq, a Visiting Fellow at the LSE Middle East Centre, Senior Fellow at the Institute of Regional and International Studies (IRIS), and a Senior Non-resident Fellow at the Atlantic Council.

His comments, opinions and analyses are personal views and are intended to be for informational purposes and general interest only and should not be construed as individual investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any fund or security or to adopt any investment strategy. It does not constitute legal or tax or investment advice. The information provided in this material is compiled from sources that are believed to be reliable, but no guarantee is made of its correctness, is rendered as at publication date and may change without notice and it is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding Iraq, the region, market or investment.

By John Lee.

The Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) has presented detailed updates on its banking-sector reform programme, with Governor Ali Mohsen Al-Alaq outlining structural plans aimed at rebuilding a compliant and modern financial system.

Al-Alaq said the engagement of Oliver Wyman followed restrictions on dollar transactions imposed on a number of Iraqi banks, noting that the consultancy is supporting deep reforms to ensure full adherence to international standards. He added that there are reassurances regarding the gradual return of affected banks to normal operations once required reforms are completed.

All Iraqi banks have signed the reform document, the Governor confirmed. Compliant institutions will be allowed to conduct transactions in other foreign currencies through a phased approach, under close monitoring by international counterparts.

On digital transformation, Al-Alaq stated that the digital dinar project is under implementation, but requires time and robust infrastructure before launch.

He reaffirmed the Bank's commitment to price stability by maintaining low inflation through a stable official exchange rate, warning that a devaluation of the dinar would harm low-income groups and erode confidence in the currency. He stressed that the exchange rate should not be used as a tool to address structural fiscal gaps, which instead require reforms to strengthen domestic revenues, control spending, diversify the economy, and support the government's direction.

See also:

Top 10 Dinar Articles from November

IMF Explains Iraq's Exchange Rate Arrangement

CBI Denies Dinar Revaluation Rumours as Inflation Falls

(Source: CBI)

The following were the ten most read dinar-related articles on Iraq Business News for the month of November:

1. CBI Instructions for Exchanging Dinars
2. CBI to Support Dinar Stability
3. CBI Denies Dinar Revaluation Rumours as Inflation Falls
4. The Iraqi Dinar Revaluation Deception: 10 Persistent False Claims Exposed
5. Donald Trump and the "Great Iraqi Dinar Revaluation"
6. Dinar RV: What does Sudani's Victory mean for Speculators?
7. Dinar RV: Will Iraqi Election Speed the Process?
8. Iraqi Dinar: Govt Attempts to Preserve Value
9. Stability of the Iraqi Dinar Exchange Rate: CBI Paper
10. Iraqi Dinar Prospects: Reality Check After Six Months of Trump

The previous month's listing can be viewed here.

For more information on the Iraqi dinar, check out IBN's Dinar Page here: https://www.iraq-businessnews.com/the-dinar-page/?swcfpc=1 

By John Lee.

Swiss-based Gunvor Group has withdrawn its proposal to acquire Lukoil's international assets following opposition from the US Treasury Department.

The Treasury stated that Gunvor would not receive a licence to operate as long as Russia continues its military actions in Ukraine, describing the company as "the Kremlin's puppet."

Gunvor rejected the claims, saying the Treasury's statement was "fundamentally misinformed and false."

The company said it has distanced itself from Russia for more than a decade, ceased trading in line with sanctions, sold off Russian assets, and publicly condemned the war in Ukraine.

Russia's Lukoil had announced plans to sell its international assets to Gunvor before the deal was abandoned.

Lukoil has significant interests in Iraq's West Qurna 2 (pictured) and Block 10.

US Treasury Department statement on X:

"President Trump has been clear that the war must end immediately. As long as Putin continues the senseless killings, the Kremlin's puppet, Gunvor, will never get a license to operate and profit."

Gunvor Group statement on X:

"The Treasury Department statement about Gunvor is fundamentally misinformed and false. Gunvor is and has always been open and transparent about its ownership and business, and has for more than a decade actively distanced itself from Russia, stopped trading in line with sanctions, sold off Russian assets, and publicly condemned the war in Ukraine. We welcome the opportunity to ensure this clear misunderstanding is corrected. In the meantime, Gunvor withdraws its proposal for Lukoil's international assets."

See also:

Ahmed Mousa Jiyad: Oil Ministry should Brace for Russia's Coerced Exodus

(Sources: US Treasury Dept / Gunvor Group)

The following were the ten most read dinar-related articles on Iraq Business News for the month of October:

1. Stability of the Iraqi Dinar Exchange Rate: CBI Paper
2. The Iraqi Dinar Revaluation Deception: 10 Persistent False Claims Exposed
3. Donald Trump and the "Great Iraqi Dinar Revaluation"
4. Dinar RV: Will Iraqi Election Speed the Process?
5. Iraqi Dinar Prospects: Reality Check After Six Months of Trump
6. Iraq Participates in Annual IMF / World Bank Meetings in DC
7. IMF Upgrades Iraq Forecasts
8. Dinars to Dollars: Official List of Approved Banks
9. What the Future Holds for Dinar Investors
10. Iraqi Central Bank Reduces Supply of Dinars

For more information on the Iraqi dinar, check out IBN's Dinar Page here: https://www.iraq-businessnews.com/the-dinar-page/?swcfpc=1 

From Amwaj Media. Any opinions expressed are those of the author(s), and do not necessarily reflect the views of Iraq Business News.

Deep Dive: Trump names first US special envoy to Iraq in two decades

For the first time in more than two decades, the US has appointed a special envoy to Iraq.

President Donald Trump's naming of a Detroit-based entrepreneur to the position has sparked divergent reactions in Iraqi and US media.

The full article can be viewed here.

By Guest Blogger. Any opinions expressed are those of the author(s), and do not necessarily reflect the views of Iraq Business News.

Dinar RV: Will Iraqi Election Speed the Process?

For years, speculators in Iraqi dinar have clung to the dream of an imminent "revaluation" or "RV" that would dramatically increase the currency's value overnight, transforming modest investments into massive windfalls. With each Iraqi election cycle, a familiar refrain emerges in dinar speculation communities: Could this political event finally trigger the long-awaited RV?

The RV Fantasy

The concept of a dinar revaluation rests on a fundamental misunderstanding of how currencies and economies work. Proponents believe Iraq will suddenly revalue its currency at rates that would make it one of the world's most valuable -- sometimes claiming it will reach or exceed the value of the US dollar. These expectations are not grounded in economic reality.

Iraq's economy, while resource-rich, faces significant challenges, including:

• Ongoing political instability
• Infrastructure damage from decades of conflict
• Heavy dependence on oil revenues
• High unemployment and inflation
• Corruption and governance issues

A massive currency revaluation would be economically catastrophic for Iraq, making its exports uncompetitive, thus crippling its economy.

Why Elections Don't Trigger Currency Miracles

Dinar speculation communities often point to elections as potential catalysts for revaluation, but this connection is purely imaginary. Elections in Iraq, like elsewhere, are political processes that may lead to policy changes over time, but they don't directly cause currency revaluations.

Central banks adjust currency values based on economic fundamentals, not political calendars. The Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) has repeatedly stated it has no plans for a dramatic revaluation. When currencies do appreciate, it happens gradually through market forces or careful central bank management -- never through the sudden, massive jumps that dinar speculators envision.

The Real Winners

The true beneficiaries of dinar RV speculation are not the hopeful investors, but the dealers and promoters who sell dinars at enormous markups and profit from spreading false hope. These dealers often charge commissions of 20% or more above the actual exchange rate, making money regardless of whether any revaluation occurs.

Many promoters operate through websites, YouTube channels, and conference calls where they perpetually claim the RV is "imminent," citing fabricated insider information, misinterpreted news stories, or completely fictional sources. When predictions fail, they simply move the goalposts and set new dates.

A Pattern of False Promises

The dinar RV community has a long history of failed predictions tied to specific events:

• "It will happen after the new government forms"
• "It will happen when Iraq exits Chapter VII sanctions" (which occurred in 2013 with no RV)
• "It will happen when the budget is published"
• "It will happen after the election"

Each milestone comes and goes without the promised revaluation, yet believers remain convinced the next event will be different.

The Bottom Line

Iraqi elections, like any other political event in Iraq, will not trigger a dinar revaluation. The RV is a speculative fantasy that ignores basic economic principles and preys on people's hopes for quick wealth.

If you're holding Iraqi dinars hoping for an RV:

• Understand that you've likely already lost money through dealer markups
• Recognize that the dinar may appreciate modestly over many years, like any currency, but will not suddenly skyrocket in value
• Be skeptical of anyone claiming insider knowledge or setting specific dates for revaluation
• Consider whether your money might be better invested in legitimate, diversified assets

The Iraqi dinar is an exotic, illiquid currency from a developing nation with significant economic and political challenges. Elections may bring political change, but they won't transform bad investments into good ones through magical currency revaluations that violate economic reality.

The sooner investors recognize the RV for what it is-an unrealistic expectation perpetuated by dealers profiting from hope-the sooner they can make informed financial decisions based on reality rather than fantasy.

For more information on the Iraqi dinar, check out IBN's Dinar Page here: https://www.iraq-businessnews.com/the-dinar-page/?swcfpc=1 

See also:

Iraqi Central Bank Reduces Supply of Dinars

Trump & Crypto: Will Bitcoin's Success Translate to the Iraqi Dinar?

Top 10 Dinar Articles from September

"Tired of Dinars", Iraq flocks to Dogecoin