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This article was originally published by Niqash. Any opinions expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Iraq Business News.

The offensive to re-take Tikrit from extremists seems to have stalled as troops surround the city but cannot go further. The same thing is happening elsewhere. And there are three main reasons why.

While stopped on the edges of the city of Tikrit, Captain Ahmad Mahmoud says he told the soldiers under his command about the battle of Stalingrad, which started in Russia in 1942 between the attacking Germans and the Russians during World War II and did not end until early in 1943.

Despite the fact that the German army, led by Nazi commanders, had surrounded the city they were not able to take it from the Russians over months of prolonged, intensive and close fighting.

Mahmoud and his soldiers are part of a major military offensive in the province of Salahaddin which aims to take back territory currently controlled by the extremist group known as the Islamic State.

Earlier in March the Iraqi government sent the Iraqi army, alongside unofficial Shiite Muslim militias and with aid from local Sunni Muslim tribes, into the province of Salahaddin to take on fighters from the Islamic State, or IS.

At first progress of the offensive, ostensibly the Iraqi government's first major campaign against the IS group, was good and within a week the forces were able to re-take the areas of al-Dour, al-Alam and Albu Ajil. But when it comes to the major city of Tikrit, which has been mostly abandoned by residents to the IS fighters, progress has slowed.

And Mahmoud seemed to think the same thing was happening to the Iraqi army in Tikrit as had happened in Stalingrad. The city was surrounded but, as he told NIQASH during a telephone interview, “we are just not trained to fight this way, on the street.

Even the Shiite militias, who are known for their street fighting skills, haven't been able to break into the city and now the Islamic State is launching attacks on the surrounding troops, exhausting the men and inflicting casualties in a similar way to the Stalingrad scenario.”

Secretary-General Appoints Ján Kubiš of Slovakia as His Special Representative for Iraq

United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon today announced the appointment of Ján Kubiš (pictured) of Slovakia as his Special Representative for Iraq and Head of the United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI).

Mr. Kubiš succeeds Nickolay Mladenov of Bulgaria to whom the Secretary-General is grateful for his dedication and leadership of UNAMI, serving in one of the most challenging United Nations duty stations and at a time of important political and security developments in the country.

Mr. Kubiš, who served as Special Representative and Head of the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA), from 2012 to 2014, brings with him several years of experience in diplomacy, foreign security policy, and international economic relations both internationally and in his own country.

Mr. Kubiš served as the Executive Secretary of the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) from 2009 to 2011, as Minister for Foreign Affairs of Slovakia from 2006 to 2009, as Chairman of the Committee of Ministers of the Council of Europe from 2007 to 2008, and as Secretary-General of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) from 1999 to 2005.

Mr. Kubiš also served as the European Union’s Special Representative for Central Asia with the office in Brussels and as the Personal Representative of the Chairman-in-Office of OSCE for Central Asia, as the United Nations Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Tajikistan and Head of the United Nations Mission of Observers in Tajikistan from 1998 to 1999. He was previously the Director of OSCE’s Conflict Prevention Centre.

Mr. Kubiš worked at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the former Czechoslovakia from 1976 to 1992 and thereafter at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Slovakia. In 1993 he served as Permanent Representative of Slovakia to the United Nations Office and other International Organizations in Geneva.

Mr. Kubiš is a graduate in International Economic Relations of the Moscow State Institute of International Affairs and speaks Slovak, Czech, English, French and Russian.

Born in 1952, he is married and has one daughter.

(Source: UNAMI)

Security Council approves resolution targeting sources of financing for ISIL

Urging global cooperation “to impair, isolate and incapacitate” terrorist threats, the United Nations Security Council today approved measures targeting sources of funding for the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and Al-Nusrah Front (ANF), condemning those buying oil from the groups, banning all trade in looted antiquities from Iraq and Syria, and calling on States to end ransom payments.

Unanimously adopting a Russian-led resolution, the Council reiterated its deep concern that oilfields, as well as other infrastructure such as dams and power plants, controlled by ISIL, ANF and other Al-Qaida-associated groups, “are generating a significant portion of the groups' income, alongside extortion, private foreign donations, kidnap ransoms and stolen money from the territory they control.”

As such, the Council, acting under Chapter VII of the UN Charter – which authorizes the use of force – condemned any engagement in direct or indirect trade, in particular of oil and oil products, and modular refineries, with ISIL, ANF and Al-Qaida affiliates, and reiterated that “such engagement would constitute support for such individuals, groups, undertakings and entities and may lead to further listings” by the relevant Sanctions Committee.

Today's resolution, which bolsters the Council's previous measures to cut off financing for ISIL and its affiliates, reaffirms the existing obligations of Member States to “freeze without delay” funds and other financial assets or economic resources of persons who commit, or attempt to commit, terrorist acts.

Coming in the wake of a spate of particularly vicious killings, including the beheading of a Japanese journalist and the immolation of a Jordanian pilot by ISIL in the past two weeks, the Council's resolution reaffirms its condemnation of kidnapping and hostage-taking committed by the groups, further strongly condemns abduction of women and children, and expresses “outrage at their exploitation and abuse, including rape, sexual abuse, forced marriage.”

By John Lee.

The Iraqi Ministry of Defence has taken delivery of another consignment of Russian Mi-28NE attack helicopters.

The shipment is part of a deal agreed in 2012, and reported to involve 28 Mi-35M and 15 Mi-28NE helicopters.

IHS Jane's 360 reports that helicopters from the previous consignments have been seen flying over Baghdad, but it is unclear if they have been used in action.

(Sources: Iraqi MoD, IHS Jane's 360, Sputnik)

By John Lee.

Defense News cites a source within the government of the United Arab Emirates as saying that the UAE may sell up to 10 Mirage 2000-9s fighter jets to the Iraqi Air Force in March.

The decision comes following a visit by the Iraqi Prime Minister, Haider al-Abadi, to Abu Dhabi in December.

"The UAE is trying to fortify Iraq's security from north to south, specifically the areas from Baghdad to Erbil," the source said. "Mainly, Erbil because many UAE strategic interests are there with regards to oil and gas investments as well as others."

The source added that light Russian-made special operations forces tactical weapons will also be provided to the Iraqi Army, with details to be finalised during a further visit by Al-Abadi in March.

(Source: Defense News)

National Overview

One year on from the start of the militant uprising in Anbar province, Iraq’s fractured regions remain on sharply different political trajectories. In the Sunni heartlands of Ramadi and Fallujah where an initial protest by local tribesmen forced the withdrawal of the Iraqi security forces in December 2014, ISIS units launched a major offensive against urban centres and ISF border posts this week, driving up nationwide fatalities even as the pace of attacks on northern battlefields slowed to a halt on many key fronts. Figures released by the Iraqi government estimating the death of at least 15,000 people in 2014 (an increase of 130% from the previous year), along with hundreds of thousands of refugees also occurred amid the confirmation of yet further growth of the Iraqi oil economy, with production now reaching levels unseen since the 1980s. Embodying these distinct trends has been the province of Kirkuk, which despite witnessing considerable security challenges and refugee influxes over recent months continues to operate a functioning oil economy, resuming international exports this week through the Turkish port of Ceyhan.

North

Peshmerga-led forces report limited gains in the Makhmour and Qayara areas south-east of Mosul, as the allied advance slows in the central plains. While ISIS units continue to fiercely resist all movement west from Peshmerga-held villages in the disputed territories, no major assaults were organized this week in the northern governorates, most likely in order to support the ongoing Anbar offensive. Instead, the majority of violence took the form of skirmishes and mortar fire on ISF-held frontline cities, including Samarra, Tikrit and Muqdadiya, where sporadic VBIEDs continue to be used regularly as means of undermining and delaying the allied push. While challenging to independently corroborate, a growing number of local reports have also suggested a depletion of manpower and support in ISIS-held areas of Hawijah, Sharqat and Mosul with hundreds of civilians reported to have been abducted over the past seven days as a targeted policy to cow the local population.

Central

ISIS forces press in on Ramadi and coalition training centres in line with a sustained assault on remaining ISF positions in south-central Anbar. At the time of writing, fierce battles are underway to gain control of the Andalus, Hoz and Mostaudah districts of downtown Ramadi, following an offensive launched over the past 24 hours. The energy of the current ISIS advances is likely to have been facilitated by the redirection supplies and heavy armour further south on 04 January, which has enabled the group’s ground forces to surround and besiege key ISF installations in the vicinity of Ramadi, including the Ain Al Assad air base where US military personnel are currently stationed. Control of the Iraqi-Jordanian, and Iraq-Saudi Arabian borders was also tested this week in a series of deadly VBIED complex attacks upon ISF and Saudi military posts. Such attacks have come at the expense of momentum in the northern battlefields of Hit and Haditha, a fact ISF units are expected to exploit over the coming days in renewed clearance operations against the Kubaisa sub-district.

South

Localised demonstrations in the Qurna area over the reporting period increase the prospect of an escalation in economic unrest against oil and gas facilities, amid unchanged security dynamics in neighbouring governorates. The largest of these disruptions occurred on 04 January when as many as 600 protestors erected tents and closed roads close to the Jabani bridge of north-eastern Basra, demanding jobs and work opportunities from IOCs in the area. News sources have indicated that Royal Dutch Shell, one of the main developers of the Majnoon field were specifically targeted by the demonstrators, due to alleged failure to uphold employment commitments, with protests only ending after local political representatives invited the group’s leaders to discuss job allocations the following day. While no further incidents have occurred, community relations are expected to remain tense in the Qurna area as details of the deal with local government are made public. Less than a year ago, hundreds of protestors blocked a main entrance to the West Qurna-2 oilfield in the area following an employment dispute with Russian IOC Lukoil.

By Patrick Schmidt.

After a meeting between Iraqi and Iranian officials, an agreement has been reached to connect the two countries’ rail systems.

The project calls for Iraq to lay 32 kilometers of track to the city of Basra from the Iranian border.

Iranian officials claim that the link would allow Iraqis access to Central Asia and Russia via Iran.

The project would also make travel easier for Iranians who wish to visit holy shrines in Iraq.

(Sources: Zawya, NINA)

By John Lee.

Iraq and Russia are leading the global surge in oil exports despite a highly competitive market. This has maintained low prices not seen since 2009, with a February settlement for Brent Crude at $56.42 a barrel.

Bloomberg reported record export data of 10.6 million barrels a day from Russia and 2.9 million bpd from Iraq, a rate not seen since 1980, the height of the post nationalisation oil industry under Saddam Hussein.

Slowing Chinese economic growth and a slowdown in European manufacturing, as well as Saudi geopolitical motivations have created an unprecedented oil market.

A strong dollar has also contributed to what analyst Walt Zimmerman described as a "double whammy" for prices.

This has forced oil dependent nations such as Iraq to urgently review their budgets for 2015.

(Source: Bloomberg)

By Cengiz Çandar for Al-Monitor. Any opinions expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Iraq Business News.

Adel Abdul-Mahdi, Iraq’s former vice president and current oil minister in Haider al-Abadi's government, spotted me aboard a flight from Beirut to Istanbul. He was in a rush, on his way back to Baghdad after the Nov. 27 OPEC meeting in Vienna.

I met up with him Dec. 1 around midnight at his hotel in Istanbul, before his early flight to Baghdad. During our tour d’horizon, he hinted about the upcoming, fateful meeting he would be having with Iraqi Kurds waiting to see him in Baghdad to strike an oil deal.

I have known Abdul-Mahdi for a long time and can attest that there is no other Arab politician in Iraq closer to the Kurds than he is. The warm and close friendship he developed with Jalal Talabani, the former Kurdish president of Iraq, during his exile in Damascus when Saddam Hussein held power, makes him an indispensable Iraqi oil minister in Erbil's eyes.

“Massoud Barzani told me,” Abdul-Mahdi said, “if they cannot come to terms even with me, they probably never can with anybody else in Baghdad.”

Abdul-Mahdi has always had a strategic mind, accumulating tremendous knowledge and experience of the region since the 1960s. A Francophone and a fluent English speaker, he has been an intellectual heavyweight since the days I knew him in 1970s Beirut.

From what he told me, an oil deal between Baghdad and Erbil seemed close, but he remained cautious. A few hours later, he would be sitting down for tough negotiations with Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) Prime Minister Nechirvan Barzani; Barzani deputy Qubad Talabani, son of the former Iraqi president; and the KRG’s very competent oil minister, Ashti Hawrami.

By Adnan Abu Zeed for Al-Monitor. Any opinions expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Iraq Business News.

The Iraqi army includes “ghost” soldiers, a purely Iraqi term used to describe members whose names are registered in the wages and salaries lists, but who are not actually present in the military ranks. Their wages go to leaders who cover for their absence.

There are ghost employees in state departments as well; they are absent in reality, but present in terms of official staff who enjoy salaries and privileges.

Al-Monitor was unable to interview officers who benefit from these ghost employees. Instead, it met with former lawmaker and leader in the Mutahidoun bloc, Mohammed Othman al-Khalidi, in Baghdad. He confirmed this phenomenon saying, “The ghost employees were one of the reasons behind the shocking collapse of the Iraqi army before the Islamic State (IS) in Mosul.

Mosul, the second biggest city in Iraq, fell into the hands of IS on July 10, after a sudden withdrawal of Iraqi troops.

Khalidi described these unreal soldiers as “ghosts in the army’s ranks, who get paid for staying home. This pushed the competent authorities to resort to armed militias to fill the gap within an army that failed to defend its country.”

The Iraqi army was established in 1921, and in 2003 the leader of the US occupational authority in Iraq, Paul Bremer, reformed it. Back then, the army included around 400,000 soldiers, but today, there are only 170,000.

According to statistics, whose source he did not mention, Khalidi estimated that 30% of the army members were “ghosts.”

Asked about measures taken to limit this phenomenon, he said, “We asked to restructure the armed forces, as part of the National Guard project,” adding, “The partisan designations by political parties and forces allowed the presence of numerous ghosts in all state facilities, and not only in the military institution.”