Central Iraq (Baghdad and Anbar)
Baghdad recorded 24 incidents this week, a decrease from last week’s figure of 28 and below the current 2012 weekly average. However, coverage in some areas of Baghdad is not necessarily reflective of reality, and so a small drop in incidents may not necessarily be an accurate indicator for a qualitative improvement in security. Insurgent activity had been notably high throughout Ramadan and Eid, and it likely that such an operational tempo was unsustainable in the long term. The rural areas to the north of the province were particularly quiet, with just two ISF raids which are reported to have killed a number of extremists. Similarly, the normally restive district of Abu Ghraib was also subdued. There were a total of nine incidents involving explosive devices (including three VBIEDs) and twelve shootings. A failed kidnap attempt was also reported in Baghdad.
Activity in Anbar province increased during the reporting period, with a total of 15 incidents compared to six during the previous period. Given the nature of statistics for Anbar, this increase is not reflective of a particularly worrying decline in security, but more likely a product of natural fluctuation in violence levels in the province. Having said that, the overall trend for 2012 has been an increase in attacks; this week’s figures are perhaps indicative of what could be termed a ‘normal’ level of violence for Anbar. Fallujah remained an area of particular concern, with half of all incidents occurring in the city, including a VBIED on 28 August. Interestingly, the city of Ramadi, known to be associated with Sunni extremist groups, was particularly quiet this week. Lulls of this nature in Ramadi have in the past been a precursor to significant attack activity in the city. Further to the north along established supply lines on the Euphrates, violent incidents were recorded in the towns of Rawa and Anah.
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