Defying the terrorists
The defiant spirit visible in southern Iraq was recently witnessed firsthand by Mantid International CEO Ginger Cruz, who returned from Baghdad (and a trip through the south) last week.
Mantid International are a consultancy who provide “advisory services to the Government of Iraq, helping to improve engagement with the international business community and develop public policy avenues that will improve the quality of life of the people of Iraq”.
Cruz gives an overview of the situation in the south, where 60% of Iraq’s oil reserves are located:
“Baghdad and the south of Iraq are much more homogenous Shia’ communities and thus much more insulated from the unfolding fighting to the north and west. However, the overall result of the latest events have certainly damaged the country’s ability to move forward. Just as the stock market rises and falls on people’s expectations, so does the future of Iraq, and pessimism is its biggest enemy now.”
Luckily for Iraq, nerves in the south have not yet given way to a race for the exit. Schneider Electric (who have a contract for a 64 MW power station in Dhi Qar) were fairly cool headed, with analyst Matt Smith noting to AFP, “The insurgency is still continuing. However it's still not impacting production and not really making any sort of material threat.”
BP have withdrawn some non essential staff, Schlumberger have not made a move yet, while Exxon have removed about 20% of their workers. China National Offshore Oil Corp. and Shell are reviewing their evacuation plans, but a CNOOC spokesperson referred to ongoing work.
But oil production and exports are expected to continue and be on track for 2.7 mbpd. British oil services company Petrofac summed up the mood of vigilance rather than panic, noting that the crisis has had “no significant impact” on operations.
Understandably, the most dramatic personal evacuations have been north of the capital, at the Baiji refinery and where Siemens pulled out 50 staff. Worryingly, dozens of Indian health workers and Turkish consulate staff are missing. Perhaps understandably, Turkey has evacuated its Basra consulate.
Meltdown?
While some commentators have painted a picture of a country the size of France in meltdown, they would do well to observe events further south, as Cruz notes, people are rallying against Daash. (The above picture shows Iraqis recently joining the army in Wasit province, sourced from ISF social media).
“The reality is a bit more mixed. Driving this past week through the south of Iraq, a new sense of purpose has infused Iraq Security Forces. For the south, there is a clearly defined enemy – Daash – which has helped build morale from Baghdad to Basrah. Iraqi Army convoys carrying new recruits of all ages moved through the streets, and crowds ranging from a few hundred to the thousands have been gathering in cities across the south and east to demonstrate their commitment to secure their cities.”
Comments are closed.