Crisis in the north
Hundreds of kilometres away it is a completely different picture, as parts of Anbar and Ninewa become entangled in the Syria crisis. This is not so much about the “ancient hatred” so much commentary prefers to reduce it to. Cruz characterizes this more in terms of a long legacy of war and dictatorship, where insurgents can thrive on grievances:
“Iraq for the past 10 years has been the victim of opportunistic insurgents of various pedigrees feeding off the chaos. The current challenge comes from a mix of Islamist extremists and disgruntled former Saddam Regime elements who have taken advantage of the inevitable shortcomings of a nascent and struggling democracy and grabbed territory in areas where religious and ethnic divides complicate power.”
No doubt Iraq will require sustained international support and engagement for years to come to overcome these divides. A continuation of the failure to find a lasting political settlement (and isolate the irreconcilable ISIL) will likely result in long term humanitarian crisis in the Sunni majority provinces while the south and KRG bolster security.
Baghdad may once again become partitioned. So far, Maliki does not look like he will be facing any serious threat to his rule, despite having many enemies, Shi’a, Kurd and Sunni. Government formation begins next week, but if the situation does not stabilise soon, a growing alliance to unseat the PM may only gain momentum.
While in Iraq, Cruz was also in touch with residents of Mosul, the majority Sunni city which also includes a patchwork of minorities. She concurs with the view of some analysts that this is a conflict far more complex than “Sunni vs.Shi’a”, and suggests the revived Sunni insurgency may yet see wider divisions:
“In the north it is more complicated. Several Mosul residents that we spoke with come from a long history of moderation and coexistence. They had not been happy with perceived marginalization by the current government, and did not put up a fight when small numbers of Daash forces came into the city.
However, as they have begun to understand the Islamic extremist aims – as Christian cemeteries were vandalized and new extreme Islamist orders on the populace have emerged, the local population has started to turn to their own militias to protect them and push out the latest invaders. Many families have simply left.
The result has been more turmoil that is dragging the whole country down. An international community that is unable to come up with a clear way to help stabilize the situation is compounding the negative dialogue which ironically comports with the insurgents’ own twisted public relations campaign.”
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