The bad old days
If the news sounds like a repeat of 2006 there are key differences--although violence has been just as high this month.Some analysts have felt that violence in Baghdad is largely burnt out, so severe was the last round of inter-communal fighting.
Ominously, militias are likely exert more control now, and this could yet spark heavy fighting in the western neighbourhoods towards Baghdad airport. An alternate scenario may even see a paradoxical situation where militias such as Asa’ib ahl al- Haq halt insurgent advances toward the capital, (as militias have done near Baqubah) subsequently contributing to the security of Sunnis in Baghdad. More likely is greater bloodshed in these areas.
Of note, major political players in Iraq such as Maliki’s al-Dawa Party, the Badr Organization and the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq have become closer to the West and praised foreign investment: both parties have done deals with French, American and British companies, among others.
This is a change from 2006 when the relationship was largely military, and accusations of sectarianism abounded, while the Iraqis sometimes complained they were not sovereign.
Today, any foreign diplomatic attempt at bringing different groups around the table has the advantage of increased commerce and security assistance. The danger is, slow movement now on the part of the US and EU will mean Iraqis have no choice but to turn to anyone for help. Elsewhere in Iraq, key Sunni leaders such as Osama al-Nujaifi also welcome Western assistance for both political settlement and fighting ISIL.
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