Such victories further insulate Iraqis within the universities and towns of the KRG and southern Iraq, educated men and women who are ready to take their country through a period of critical reform.
Some of these Iraqis are already the business partners of entrepreneurs in the region and the wider world, and many more are yet to make these connections. But as globalisation marches on, they will no doubt have their day.
As I write this however, many observers fear terrible acts of slaughter as ISIL inevitably launch their annual attacks on the Ashura festival in and around Baghdad. We will see more headlines heralding Iraq’s descent once again. Not for the first time.
Consider the country’s very recent history. Not so long ago, in the space of 3 years Iraq went from a flatlining economy and a situation akin to a terrorist apocalypse, to witnessing a situation where security was well under control and the economy was the second fastest growing in the world. What was vitally different in those days was that almost all of Iraq was under threat. But this is no longer the case.
Writing in The Guardian in 2009, Iraq analyst Ranj Alaaldin noted how delegations from foreign companies were queuing up to meet representatives from Iraq’s National Investment Commission. After the security gains of 2008, foreign interest and investment in Iraq surged, and really there is little to differentiate the situation in the south today than in 2009. In fact, security in Basra is probably better than in 2009, at least in terms of the terror threat.
After the “Surge” this situation would continue until 2012, bumping a little as oil prices slumped briefly after the 2008 financial crisis. Iraq also battled to overcome the bureaucratic and regulatory hindrances to foreign investment, gradually reforming the 2006 National Investment Law, a process which is ongoing.
Incredible as it may seem today, in 2011 more Iraqis were victims of road accidents than were killed or injured by terrorism, while in 2006 as many as 3000 people were perished in a single month. In 2012, the director of Ford Middle East was calling the Iraq market one of the biggest potential opportunities in the region. How did this turnaround happen? Crucially, could such a turnaround happen again?
Welcome to Southern Iraq: ISIL Ends Here
In a sense it is already happening. In vast swathes of Iraq, including Karbala (with its thriving property/ tourism trade) Basra (an ongoing energy success story) and Arbil and Sulaymaniyah in the Kurdish region (both scenic cities with a myriad of ambitions beyond oil), security is still a consideration for foreign companies. But it is by no means the critical calculation that will make or break the investment.
There are countless foreign oil companies in the Kurdish region and over 1500 Turkish companies doing business there, in addition to a plethora of non energy sector foreign companies. Pragmatism and business has triumphed over old politics, to the benefit of the region.
In southern Iraq this is now the message of politicians such as Basra governor Majid al-Nasrawi, a determined reformist. The governorates of Karbala, Babil, Dhi Qar and Maysan have a similar message: we are open for business. In fact, their governors are in regular contact with businessmen and consultants from Europe and North America.
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