Key to the fight, and bolstered by the coalition advisory effort are the Iraqi Special Operations Forces, numbering a division in strength and arguably the best unit in the Middle East. They were not so strongly on the scene in 2006, but they are holding back the ISIL tide across Iraq today.
One might justifiably argue that today, the absence of raw US military power on the ground and the diminishment of the Sunni “Sahwa” movement means that there is no hope of progress. But when we compare today and 2006, the picture is mixed, and some of the better developments are not in the headlines. If you have been reading the reports of the International Energy Agency then you will know Iraq’s oil production is vital to the global economy.
But as the old news saying goes, “if it bleeds it leads”, and hundreds of thousands of Iraqis have steadfastly refused to bleed. They have not only held ISIL back from Baghdad, but have retaken ground hundreds of kilometres to the north of the capital and continue to hold ground from Anbar to south of Baghdad, recently pounding ISIL out of north Babil province in a surprise victory at Jurf al-Sakhar, a development reported from the scene by the BBC. Around the Kurdish region, numerous towns and villages have been re-taken.
Meanwhile Shi’a militias, undoubtedly a concern to some observers, have played a role in this fight. In some areas they have almost certainly made the situation worse, terrifying some Sunni communities and pushing others to take up arms. In other areas they have even been seen fighting alongside the Sunni tribesmen, so it is not a black and white situation: some of the worst sectarian clashes are actually quite localised. One should never base an analysis of Iraq on an event in a single town or province: Iraq is still a complex and evolving situation.
So what is favourable? The remaining Iraqi army units still fighting, bolstered by an array of militias and the Kurds in the north, can hold ISIL back through what is essentially static defence and strength in numbers. Supported by coalition air strikes (which deny ISIL the use of key arterial roads and the ability to mass forces) and aided by foreign military advisers, the Iraqi army can maintain battlefield stasis and even take some ground.
But ISIL will remain a ferocious menace in central Iraq. This has minimal impact on the energy sector in the south or the Kurdish region, for now Iraq’s vital organs. Right now, the Kurdish region has its own economic challenges unrelated to the war. Both regions have immense potential. Until ISIL are beaten back however, it remains a grim situation for Sunnis in ISIL held areas in northern and western Iraq, and in Baghdad itself, which will continue to face terror for years.
Sunni resistance to ISIL
There may yet be a scenario beyond this, which could herald the slowing of ISIL, from a terror army with battalions and tanks back into a containable terror organisation of covert cells. If we get to this stage then central Iraq will be back on track once more, and will benefit from the economic growth in the south and the Kurdish region. This positive development is the re-emergence of determined localised Sunni resistance to ISIL, in multiple majority Sunni and mixed provinces.
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