But without broad political support in Iraq, good sentiments and plans don’t last. Abadi has a broad base of support and understands modern counter-terrorism concepts. He has vocally condemned the dangers of sectarianism on a number of occasions, but in tones more convincing than when other Iraqi politicians have condemned it.
An intellectually weak leader could not push these noble ideas to reality in Iraq. Abadi not only has support, but two degrees from Baghdad University and Manchester University in Britain.
Taking on Iraq’s security nightmare will need the re-introduction of merit based appointments in the Iraqi army. Abadi is beginning such reforms. Iraq’s security sector has evidently suffered long term decay, albeit not the terminal decline that we saw in Mosul. Corruption and sectarianism need to be stamped out, but here again Abadi is taking on the challenge, appointing a Sunni Minister of Defence who on Monday prayed alongside Shias in Karbala.
Here is a leader, for the first time in decades who could genuinely unite Iraq. And this time, key leaders across the sectarian and ethnic divides are willing to listen. This is bad news for ISIL, who now face an impressive array of nations lined up outside of Iraq, and an impressive array of groups aligned within the country.
It was this multi-directional pressure, not one single factor such as the American “Surge” or the Sahwa, which blunted al-Qaeda last time around. ISIL are probably too strong today to be beaten down in the same way, but they can be contained.
They will lose the strategic initiative. Already, their supply lines to Mosul have been effectively cut by an alliance of coalition and Iraqi aircraft, Kurdish forces, Iraqi Special Forces and Iraqi Sunni tribes, who recently took the Ya Rabiyah border crossing into Syria.
Abadi is in contact with all of the most important leaders who straddle Iraq’s historical divisions--at least the ones open to dialogue. The challenges are many, but here is a man who embodies the exact opposite of the kind of autocratic rule which has brought so many autocracies to military and social disaster.
Crucially, here is a leader with over two decade’s worth of experience in management in the public and private sector--and this could bring the kind of strategy Iraq has been missing for so long.
Comments are closed.